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Arlington, VA · ZIP 22209 · Census Tract 51013101704 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$225K
Downside (P10)
$215K
-4% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$241K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$312K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -4% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 78% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $200K | $201K | $210K | $216K | $220K | $225K | $235K | $238K | $241K | $230K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$25,230 | -$23,830 | -$15,330 | -$9,330 | -$5,530 | +$9,559 | +$12,503 | +$15,927 | +$5,404 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -11.2% | -10.6% | -6.8% | -4.1% | -2.5% | +4.2% | +5.6% | +7.1% | +2.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $209K | $214K | $215K | $203K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $270K | $279K | $312K | $257K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$209K to $270K
25.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$203K to $257K
23.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | $223K | $241K | +7.9% | |
| Arlington (Tract 103501) | $410K | $469K | +14.4% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101501) | $357K | $408K | +14.2% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101409) | $448K | $509K | +13.8% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102200) | $333K | $378K | +13.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102803) | $325K | $363K | +11.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | $223K | $241K | +7.9% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102002) | $1.08M | $1.28M | +19.1% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101705) | $835K | $993K | +18.9% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102701) | $1.04M | $1.23M | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101405) | $574K | $680K | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101601) | $1.25M | $1.48M | +18.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | $223K | $241K | $96K | |
| Arlington (Tract 102200) | $333K | $378K | $251K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101501) | $357K | $408K | $223K | |
| Arlington (Tract 103501) | $410K | $469K | $222K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101602) | $449K | $464K | $201K | |
| Arlington (Tract 102803) | $325K | $363K | $149K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Arlington, VA · ZIP 22209 · Census Tract 51013101704 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$225K
Downside (P10)
$215K
-4% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$241K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$312K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -4% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 78% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $200K | $201K | $210K | $216K | $220K | $225K | $235K | $238K | $241K | $230K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$25,230 | -$23,830 | -$15,330 | -$9,330 | -$5,530 | +$9,559 | +$12,503 | +$15,927 | +$5,404 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -11.2% | -10.6% | -6.8% | -4.1% | -2.5% | +4.2% | +5.6% | +7.1% | +2.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $209K | $214K | $215K | $203K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $270K | $279K | $312K | $257K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$209K to $270K
25.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$203K to $257K
23.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | $223K | $241K | +7.9% | |
| Arlington (Tract 103501) | $410K | $469K | +14.4% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101501) | $357K | $408K | +14.2% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101409) | $448K | $509K | +13.8% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102200) | $333K | $378K | +13.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102803) | $325K | $363K | +11.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | $223K | $241K | +7.9% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102002) | $1.08M | $1.28M | +19.1% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101705) | $835K | $993K | +18.9% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102701) | $1.04M | $1.23M | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101405) | $574K | $680K | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101601) | $1.25M | $1.48M | +18.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | $223K | $241K | $96K | |
| Arlington (Tract 102200) | $333K | $378K | $251K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101501) | $357K | $408K | $223K | |
| Arlington (Tract 103501) | $410K | $469K | $222K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101602) | $449K | $464K | $201K | |
| Arlington (Tract 102803) | $325K | $363K | $149K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
