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Arlington, VA · ZIP 22203 · Census Tract 51013102001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.04M
Downside (P10)
$888K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.13M
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.39M
+34% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $380K | $487K | $517K | $536K | $600K | $802K | $762K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.0M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$655,031 | -$548,531 | -$518,531 | -$499,831 | -$435,031 | -$233,231 | -$273,231 | -$13,231 | -$10,931 | -$31,431 | +$35,907 | +$67,927 | +$96,832 | -$7,750 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -63.3% | -53.0% | -50.1% | -48.3% | -42.0% | -22.5% | -26.4% | -1.3% | -1.1% | -3.0% | +3.5% | +6.6% | +9.4% | -0.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $942K | $875K | $888K | $913K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.2M |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$942K to $1.3M
30.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$913K to $1.2M
25.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington · 22203 · (Tract 1020.1) | $1.01M | $1.13M | +11.8% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102701) | $1.04M | $1.23M | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101200) | $1.03M | $1.12M | +9.6% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102302) | $1.01M | $1.08M | +7.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 100800) | $1.02M | $1.07M | +5.0% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101100) | $1.02M | $995K | -2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington · 22203 · (Tract 1020.1) | $1.01M | $1.13M | +11.8% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102002) | $1.08M | $1.28M | +19.1% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101705) | $835K | $993K | +18.9% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102701) | $1.04M | $1.23M | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101405) | $574K | $680K | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101601) | $1.25M | $1.48M | +18.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington · 22203 · (Tract 1020.1) | $1.01M | $1.13M | $503K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101501) | $357K | $408K | $223K | |
| Arlington (Tract 103501) | $410K | $469K | $222K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101602) | $449K | $464K | $201K | |
| Arlington (Tract 102803) | $325K | $363K | $149K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101704) | $223K | $241K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Arlington, VA · ZIP 22203 · Census Tract 51013102001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.04M
Downside (P10)
$888K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.13M
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.39M
+34% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $380K | $487K | $517K | $536K | $600K | $802K | $762K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.0M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$655,031 | -$548,531 | -$518,531 | -$499,831 | -$435,031 | -$233,231 | -$273,231 | -$13,231 | -$10,931 | -$31,431 | +$35,907 | +$67,927 | +$96,832 | -$7,750 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -63.3% | -53.0% | -50.1% | -48.3% | -42.0% | -22.5% | -26.4% | -1.3% | -1.1% | -3.0% | +3.5% | +6.6% | +9.4% | -0.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $942K | $875K | $888K | $913K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.2M |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$942K to $1.3M
30.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$913K to $1.2M
25.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington · 22203 · (Tract 1020.1) | $1.01M | $1.13M | +11.8% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102701) | $1.04M | $1.23M | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101200) | $1.03M | $1.12M | +9.6% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102302) | $1.01M | $1.08M | +7.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 100800) | $1.02M | $1.07M | +5.0% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101100) | $1.02M | $995K | -2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington · 22203 · (Tract 1020.1) | $1.01M | $1.13M | +11.8% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102002) | $1.08M | $1.28M | +19.1% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101705) | $835K | $993K | +18.9% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102701) | $1.04M | $1.23M | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101405) | $574K | $680K | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101601) | $1.25M | $1.48M | +18.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington · 22203 · (Tract 1020.1) | $1.01M | $1.13M | $503K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101501) | $357K | $408K | $223K | |
| Arlington (Tract 103501) | $410K | $469K | $222K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101602) | $449K | $464K | $201K | |
| Arlington (Tract 102803) | $325K | $363K | $149K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101704) | $223K | $241K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
