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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Arlington, VA · ZIP 22203 · Census Tract 51013101405 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$606K
Downside (P10)
$548K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$680K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$983K
+62% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +62%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $429K | $468K | $487K | $508K | $553K | $606K | $628K | $663K | $680K |
| YoY Change | +9.1% | +4.0% | +4.4% | +8.9% | +9.6% | +3.6% | +5.6% | +2.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $535K | $552K | $548K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $777K | $854K | $983K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$535K to $777K
38.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$548K to $983K
63.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington · 22203 · (Tract 1014.5) | $574K | $680K | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 103503) | $568K | $650K | +14.3% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101804) | $644K | $736K | +14.2% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102702) | $592K | $664K | +12.3% | |
| Arlington (Tract 103000) | $612K | $683K | +11.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102804) | $615K | $664K | +8.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington · 22203 · (Tract 1014.5) | $574K | $680K | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102002) | $1.08M | $1.28M | +19.1% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101705) | $835K | $993K | +18.9% | |
| Arlington (Tract 102701) | $1.04M | $1.23M | +18.5% | |
| Arlington (Tract 101601) | $1.25M | $1.48M | +18.4% | |
| Arlington (Tract 103403) | $502K | $589K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington · 22203 · (Tract 1014.5) | $574K | $680K | $435K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101501) | $357K | $408K | $223K | |
| Arlington (Tract 103501) | $410K | $469K | $222K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101602) | $449K | $464K | $201K | |
| Arlington (Tract 102803) | $325K | $363K | $149K | |
| Arlington (Tract 101704) | $223K | $241K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.