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Alexandria, VA · ZIP 22314 · Census Tract 51510201601 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$844K
Downside (P10)
$596K
-29% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$803K
-5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.21M
+43% by 2030
Base case: -5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -29% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $635K | $668K | $765K | $784K | $850K | $844K | $837K | $853K | $803K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$208,682 | -$176,082 | -$78,682 | -$59,682 | +$6,018 | -$6,677 | +$9,106 | -$40,604 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -24.7% | -20.9% | -9.3% | -7.1% | +0.7% | -0.8% | +1.1% | -4.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $643K | $627K | $596K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$643K to $1.1M
50.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$596K to $1.2M
76.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria · 22314 · (Tract 2016.1) | $849K | $803K | -5.4% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200703) | $892K | $987K | +10.7% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200106) | $822K | $905K | +10.1% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201803) | $838K | $909K | +8.5% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201202) | $880K | $943K | +7.2% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201206) | $845K | $891K | +5.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria · 22314 · (Tract 2016.1) | $849K | $803K | -5.4% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200304) | $307K | $365K | +18.6% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201802) | $1.32M | $1.53M | +16.5% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201804) | $1.11M | $1.29M | +16.0% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200111) | $583K | $673K | +15.4% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200109) | $276K | $317K | +14.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria · 22314 · (Tract 2016.1) | $849K | $803K | $611K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201000) | $385K | $411K | $174K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200109) | $276K | $317K | $171K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200305) | $319K | $358K | $166K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200108) | $257K | $276K | $158K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200406) | $320K | $332K | $154K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Alexandria, VA · ZIP 22314 · Census Tract 51510201601 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$844K
Downside (P10)
$596K
-29% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$803K
-5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.21M
+43% by 2030
Base case: -5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -29% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $635K | $668K | $765K | $784K | $850K | $844K | $837K | $853K | $803K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$208,682 | -$176,082 | -$78,682 | -$59,682 | +$6,018 | -$6,677 | +$9,106 | -$40,604 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -24.7% | -20.9% | -9.3% | -7.1% | +0.7% | -0.8% | +1.1% | -4.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $643K | $627K | $596K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$643K to $1.1M
50.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$596K to $1.2M
76.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria · 22314 · (Tract 2016.1) | $849K | $803K | -5.4% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200703) | $892K | $987K | +10.7% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200106) | $822K | $905K | +10.1% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201803) | $838K | $909K | +8.5% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201202) | $880K | $943K | +7.2% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201206) | $845K | $891K | +5.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria · 22314 · (Tract 2016.1) | $849K | $803K | -5.4% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200304) | $307K | $365K | +18.6% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201802) | $1.32M | $1.53M | +16.5% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201804) | $1.11M | $1.29M | +16.0% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200111) | $583K | $673K | +15.4% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200109) | $276K | $317K | +14.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria · 22314 · (Tract 2016.1) | $849K | $803K | $611K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201000) | $385K | $411K | $174K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200109) | $276K | $317K | $171K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200305) | $319K | $358K | $166K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200108) | $257K | $276K | $158K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200406) | $320K | $332K | $154K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
