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Alexandria, VA · ZIP 22314 · Census Tract 51510200703 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$897K
Downside (P10)
$734K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$987K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.27M
+42% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $599K | $596K | $633K | $647K | $655K | $662K | $690K | $771K | $855K | $878K | $897K | $916K | $940K | $987K | $909K |
| YoY Change | -0.4% | +6.1% | +2.3% | +1.2% | +1.1% | +4.2% | +11.7% | +10.9% | +2.7% | +2.2% | +2.2% | +2.6% | +5.0% | -7.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $774K | $743K | $734K | $798K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.0M |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$774K to $1.10M
35.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$798K to $1.03M
25.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | $892K | $987K | +10.7% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200106) | $822K | $905K | +10.1% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201803) | $838K | $909K | +8.5% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201202) | $880K | $943K | +7.2% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201206) | $845K | $891K | +5.4% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201601) | $849K | $803K | -5.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | $892K | $987K | +10.7% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200304) | $307K | $365K | +18.6% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201802) | $1.32M | $1.53M | +16.5% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201804) | $1.11M | $1.29M | +16.0% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200111) | $583K | $673K | +15.4% | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200109) | $276K | $317K | +14.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | $892K | $987K | $539K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 201000) | $385K | $411K | $174K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200109) | $276K | $317K | $171K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200305) | $319K | $358K | $166K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200108) | $257K | $276K | $158K | |
| Alexandria (Tract 200406) | $320K | $332K | $154K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.