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Smith, TX · ZIP 75789 · Census Tract 48423002101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$163K
Downside (P10)
$136K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$178K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$229K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $96K | $96K | $99K | $108K | $116K | $140K | $120K | $146K | $155K | $158K | $163K | $166K | $175K | $178K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$66,403 | -$67,003 | -$63,103 | -$54,403 | -$46,403 | -$22,703 | -$43,003 | -$17,003 | -$7,603 | -$4,103 | +$3,582 | +$12,611 | +$15,961 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -40.9% | -41.2% | -38.8% | -33.5% | -28.6% | -14.0% | -26.5% | -10.5% | -4.7% | -2.5% | +2.2% | +7.8% | +9.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $148K | $142K | $136K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $201K | $217K | $229K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$148K to $201K
32.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$136K to $229K
52.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troup-Arp | $161K | $178K | +11.1% | |
| Tyler (Tract 000600) | $164K | $181K | +10.5% | |
| Tyler (Tract 001702) | $149K | $160K | +7.8% | |
| Tyler East | $171K | $181K | +5.9% | |
| Tyler (Tract 001607) | $174K | $184K | +5.9% | |
| Winona | $165K | $172K | +4.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troup-Arp | $161K | $178K | +11.1% | |
| Lindale (Tract 001408) | $258K | $322K | +24.8% | |
| Whitehouse (Tract 002013) | $427K | $508K | +18.9% | |
| Tyler | $147K | $171K | +16.6% | |
| Whitehouse (Tract 002009) | $273K | $314K | +15.2% | |
| Lindale (Tract 001406) | $310K | $351K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troup-Arp | $161K | $178K | $93K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000600) | $164K | $181K | $64K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000700) | $121K | $128K | $63K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000201) | $100K | $108K | $51K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000500) | $99K | $107K | $50K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000400) | $93K | $102K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Smith, TX · ZIP 75789 · Census Tract 48423002101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$163K
Downside (P10)
$136K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$178K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$229K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $96K | $96K | $99K | $108K | $116K | $140K | $120K | $146K | $155K | $158K | $163K | $166K | $175K | $178K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$66,403 | -$67,003 | -$63,103 | -$54,403 | -$46,403 | -$22,703 | -$43,003 | -$17,003 | -$7,603 | -$4,103 | +$3,582 | +$12,611 | +$15,961 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -40.9% | -41.2% | -38.8% | -33.5% | -28.6% | -14.0% | -26.5% | -10.5% | -4.7% | -2.5% | +2.2% | +7.8% | +9.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $148K | $142K | $136K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $201K | $217K | $229K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$148K to $201K
32.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$136K to $229K
52.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troup-Arp | $161K | $178K | +11.1% | |
| Tyler (Tract 000600) | $164K | $181K | +10.5% | |
| Tyler (Tract 001702) | $149K | $160K | +7.8% | |
| Tyler East | $171K | $181K | +5.9% | |
| Tyler (Tract 001607) | $174K | $184K | +5.9% | |
| Winona | $165K | $172K | +4.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troup-Arp | $161K | $178K | +11.1% | |
| Lindale (Tract 001408) | $258K | $322K | +24.8% | |
| Whitehouse (Tract 002013) | $427K | $508K | +18.9% | |
| Tyler | $147K | $171K | +16.6% | |
| Whitehouse (Tract 002009) | $273K | $314K | +15.2% | |
| Lindale (Tract 001406) | $310K | $351K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troup-Arp | $161K | $178K | $93K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000600) | $164K | $181K | $64K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000700) | $121K | $128K | $63K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000201) | $100K | $108K | $51K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000500) | $99K | $107K | $50K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000400) | $93K | $102K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
