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Lubbock, TX · ZIP 79412 · Census Tract 48303002301 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$102K
Downside (P10)
$85K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$110K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$143K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $80K | $85K | $97K | $97K | $98K | $102K | $104K | $108K | $110K |
| YoY Change | +6.4% | +13.2% | +0.1% | +1.8% | +3.6% | +1.7% | +3.8% | +2.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $93K | $92K | $85K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $126K | $135K | $143K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$93K to $126K
32.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$85K to $143K
53.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lubbock · 79412 · (Tract 23.1) | $99K | $110K | +10.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 000901) | $98K | $101K | +3.4% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001805) | $109K | $117K | +7.9% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002002) | $112K | $120K | +7.6% | |
| Slaton | $91K | $94K | +2.9% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002208) | $113K | $123K | +8.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lubbock · 79412 · (Tract 23.1) | $99K | $110K | +10.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001808) | $174K | $216K | +23.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002500) | $117K | $138K | +17.7% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 000402) | $199K | $230K | +15.8% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 010423) | $316K | $366K | +15.8% | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001000) | $57K | $66K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lubbock · 79412 · (Tract 23.1) | $99K | $110K | $58K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 010204) | $60K | $67K | $31K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 002401) | $77K | $86K | $38K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001000) | $57K | $66K | $38K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 001200) | $74K | $84K | $41K | |
| Lubbock (Tract 000304) | $84K | $95K | $42K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.