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Henderson, TX · ZIP 75751 · Census Tract 48213950400 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$257K
Downside (P10)
$192K
-25% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$260K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$365K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -25% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $102K | $107K | $118K | $115K | $125K | $133K | $133K | $164K | $217K | $248K | $257K | $256K | $255K | $260K |
| YoY Change | +4.2% | +10.4% | -2.2% | +8.9% | +6.1% | +0.2% | +23.3% | +32.0% | +14.3% | +3.7% | -0.3% | -0.3% | +1.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $213K | $205K | $192K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $320K | $352K | $365K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$213K to $320K
41.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$192K to $365K
66.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athens · 75751 · (Tract 9504) | $253K | $260K | +2.8% | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 950903) | $247K | $273K | +10.6% | |
| Chandler-Brownsboro (Tract 950202) | $258K | $282K | +9.3% | |
| Chandler-Brownsboro (Tract 950101) | $249K | $270K | +8.3% | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 950604) | $264K | $283K | +7.2% | |
| Athens | $251K | $252K | +0.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athens · 75751 · (Tract 9504) | $253K | $260K | +2.8% | |
| Chandler-Brownsboro | $199K | $232K | +16.7% | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 951000) | $85K | $100K | +16.7% | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 950802) | $342K | $396K | +15.7% | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 950801) | $158K | $181K | +14.3% | |
| Athens | $223K | $251K | +12.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athens · 75751 · (Tract 9504) | $253K | $260K | $173K | |
| LaRue-Poynor | $138K | $153K | $80K | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 950904) | $202K | $217K | $79K | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 950700) | $109K | $118K | $66K | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 951000) | $85K | $100K | $52K | |
| Athens | $70K | $73K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.