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Henderson, TX · ZIP 75156 · Census Tract 48213950904 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$201K
Downside (P10)
$177K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$217K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$256K
+27% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +27%. The model forecasts this with 80% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $105K | $118K | $145K | $184K | $201K | $201K | $203K | $210K | $217K |
| YoY Change | +13.2% | +22.4% | +27.1% | +9.1% | +0.1% | +1.2% | +3.1% | +3.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $176K | $173K | $177K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $243K | $251K | $256K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$176K to $243K
33.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$177K to $256K
36.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Creek Lake | $202K | $217K | +7.1% | |
| Chandler-Brownsboro (Tract 950102) | $199K | $232K | +16.7% | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 951101) | $213K | $240K | +12.5% | |
| Athens | $202K | $220K | +9.1% | |
| Chandler-Brownsboro (Tract 950201) | $204K | $222K | +9.1% | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 950902) | $211K | $218K | +3.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Creek Lake | $202K | $217K | +7.1% | |
| Chandler-Brownsboro | $199K | $232K | +16.7% | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 951000) | $85K | $100K | +16.7% | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 950802) | $342K | $396K | +15.7% | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 950801) | $158K | $181K | +14.3% | |
| Athens | $223K | $251K | +12.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Creek Lake | $202K | $217K | $79K | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 950801) | $158K | $181K | $85K | |
| LaRue-Poynor | $138K | $153K | $80K | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 950700) | $109K | $118K | $66K | |
| Cedar Creek Lake (Tract 951000) | $85K | $100K | $52K | |
| Athens | $70K | $73K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.