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Grayson, TX · ZIP 76273 · Census Tract 48181001104 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$354K
Downside (P10)
$304K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$375K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$527K
+49% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $209K | $262K | $321K | $319K | $344K | $354K | $358K | $381K | $375K | $360K |
| YoY Change | +25.7% | +22.4% | -0.7% | +7.8% | +3.0% | +1.1% | +6.5% | -1.7% | -4.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $306K | $302K | $304K | $312K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $407K | $450K | $527K | $400K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$306K to $407K
28.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$312K to $400K
24.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Grayson · Whitesboro · (Tract 11.4) | $352K | $375K | +6.4% | |
| Northwest Grayson | $297K | $321K | +8.0% | |
| East Grayson (Tract 001803) | $385K | $412K | +7.0% | |
| East Grayson (Tract 000901) | $331K | $352K | +6.4% | |
| Southwest Grayson | $333K | $353K | +6.1% | |
| East Grayson (Tract 001801) | $316K | $322K | +2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Grayson · Whitesboro · (Tract 11.4) | $352K | $375K | +6.4% | |
| Sherman | $282K | $332K | +17.6% | |
| Denison | $120K | $139K | +16.3% | |
| East Grayson | $271K | $307K | +13.3% | |
| Northwest Grayson (Tract 000304) | $251K | $282K | +12.3% | |
| Northwest Grayson (Tract 000306) | $222K | $248K | +11.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Grayson · Whitesboro · (Tract 11.4) | $352K | $375K | $223K | |
| East Grayson (Tract 001500) | $151K | $159K | $92K | |
| Denison (Tract 000502) | $120K | $139K | $89K | |
| East Grayson (Tract 000400) | $144K | $154K | $87K | |
| Denison (Tract 000700) | $151K | $167K | $79K | |
| East Grayson (Tract 001400) | $125K | $131K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.