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Fort Bend, TX · ZIP 77406 · Census Tract 48157673501 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$475K
Downside (P10)
$425K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$524K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$663K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $247K | $305K | $353K | $406K | $469K | $475K | $491K | $499K | $524K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$227,679 | -$170,179 | -$122,479 | -$68,979 | -$5,879 | +$15,582 | +$23,733 | +$49,295 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -47.9% | -35.8% | -25.8% | -14.5% | -1.2% | +3.3% | +5.0% | +10.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $435K | $414K | $425K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $562K | $614K | $663K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$435K to $562K
25.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$425K to $663K
45.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond · 77406 · (Tract 6735.1) | $469K | $524K | +11.7% | |
| Missouri City | $479K | $2.51M | +424.8% | |
| Rosenberg-Richmond | $469K | $536K | +14.4% | |
| Katy | $478K | $525K | +9.9% | |
| Sugar Land | $478K | $502K | +5.1% | |
| Richmond | $483K | $504K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond · 77406 · (Tract 6735.1) | $469K | $524K | +11.7% | |
| Sugar Land | $521K | $38.77M | +7335.7% | |
| Stafford-Missouri City | $897K | $41.45M | +4522.5% | |
| Meadows Place | $845K | $22.90M | +2610.3% | |
| Alief West (Tract 672500) | $1.82M | $42.33M | +2221.1% | |
| Alief West (Tract 672401) | $1.53M | $33.20M | +2070.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond · 77406 · (Tract 6735.1) | $469K | $524K | $238K | |
| Fort Bend (Tract 670201) | $190K | $207K | $87K | |
| Stafford-Missouri City | $130K | $156K | $86K | |
| Rosenberg-Richmond | $144K | $166K | $83K | |
| Fort Bend (Tract 670101) | $173K | $190K | $66K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Fort Bend, TX · ZIP 77406 · Census Tract 48157673501 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$475K
Downside (P10)
$425K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$524K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$663K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $247K | $305K | $353K | $406K | $469K | $475K | $491K | $499K | $524K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$227,679 | -$170,179 | -$122,479 | -$68,979 | -$5,879 | +$15,582 | +$23,733 | +$49,295 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -47.9% | -35.8% | -25.8% | -14.5% | -1.2% | +3.3% | +5.0% | +10.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $435K | $414K | $425K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $562K | $614K | $663K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$435K to $562K
25.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$425K to $663K
45.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond · 77406 · (Tract 6735.1) | $469K | $524K | +11.7% | |
| Missouri City | $479K | $2.51M | +424.8% | |
| Rosenberg-Richmond | $469K | $536K | +14.4% | |
| Katy | $478K | $525K | +9.9% | |
| Sugar Land | $478K | $502K | +5.1% | |
| Richmond | $483K | $504K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond · 77406 · (Tract 6735.1) | $469K | $524K | +11.7% | |
| Sugar Land | $521K | $38.77M | +7335.7% | |
| Stafford-Missouri City | $897K | $41.45M | +4522.5% | |
| Meadows Place | $845K | $22.90M | +2610.3% | |
| Alief West (Tract 672500) | $1.82M | $42.33M | +2221.1% | |
| Alief West (Tract 672401) | $1.53M | $33.20M | +2070.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond · 77406 · (Tract 6735.1) | $469K | $524K | $238K | |
| Fort Bend (Tract 670201) | $190K | $207K | $87K | |
| Stafford-Missouri City | $130K | $156K | $86K | |
| Rosenberg-Richmond | $144K | $166K | $83K | |
| Fort Bend (Tract 670101) | $173K | $190K | $66K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
