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Cherokee, TX · Census Tract 48073680008 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$688K
Downside (P10)
$282K
-59% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$636K
-8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.20M
+75% by 2030
Base case: -8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -59% to +75%. The model forecasts this with 20% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $688K | $702K | $650K | $622K | $636K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$14,189 | -$37,402 | -$65,471 | -$52,055 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +2.1% | -5.4% | -9.5% | -7.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $398K | $302K | $277K | $282K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$398K to $1.0M
86.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$282K to $1.2M
144.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680008 | $688K | $636K | -7.6% | |
| Cherokee (Tract 840000) | $722K | $1.03M | +41.9% | |
| Cherokee (Tract 880002) | $717K | $855K | +19.2% | |
| Mount Selman | $250K | $272K | +8.6% | |
| Cherokee (Tract 760009) | $612K | $637K | +4.2% | |
| Cherokee (Tract 240008) | $659K | $610K | -7.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680008 | $688K | $636K | -7.6% | |
| Cherokee (Tract 840000) | $722K | $1.03M | +41.9% | |
| Cherokee (Tract 880002) | $717K | $855K | +19.2% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 950302) | $229K | $262K | +14.6% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 950600) | $164K | $182K | +11.1% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 950301) | $191K | $213K | +11.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680008 | $688K | $636K | $921K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 950700) | $118K | $123K | $55K | |
| Rusk (Tract 950801) | $200K | $196K | $52K | |
| New Summerfield | $207K | $211K | $52K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 950400) | $85K | $93K | $47K | |
| Rusk (Tract 950802) | $172K | $175K | $45K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Cherokee, TX · Census Tract 48073680008 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$688K
Downside (P10)
$282K
-59% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$636K
-8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.20M
+75% by 2030
Base case: -8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -59% to +75%. The model forecasts this with 20% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $688K | $702K | $650K | $622K | $636K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$14,189 | -$37,402 | -$65,471 | -$52,055 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +2.1% | -5.4% | -9.5% | -7.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $398K | $302K | $277K | $282K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$398K to $1.0M
86.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$282K to $1.2M
144.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680008 | $688K | $636K | -7.6% | |
| Cherokee (Tract 840000) | $722K | $1.03M | +41.9% | |
| Cherokee (Tract 880002) | $717K | $855K | +19.2% | |
| Mount Selman | $250K | $272K | +8.6% | |
| Cherokee (Tract 760009) | $612K | $637K | +4.2% | |
| Cherokee (Tract 240008) | $659K | $610K | -7.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680008 | $688K | $636K | -7.6% | |
| Cherokee (Tract 840000) | $722K | $1.03M | +41.9% | |
| Cherokee (Tract 880002) | $717K | $855K | +19.2% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 950302) | $229K | $262K | +14.6% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 950600) | $164K | $182K | +11.1% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 950301) | $191K | $213K | +11.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680008 | $688K | $636K | $921K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 950700) | $118K | $123K | $55K | |
| Rusk (Tract 950801) | $200K | $196K | $52K | |
| New Summerfield | $207K | $211K | $52K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 950400) | $85K | $93K | $47K | |
| Rusk (Tract 950802) | $172K | $175K | $45K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
