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Pennington, SD · ZIP 57702 · Census Tract 46103011004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$527K
Downside (P10)
$459K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$587K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$775K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $273K | $287K | $295K | $315K | $329K | $336K | $345K | $430K | $457K | $520K | $527K | $540K | $565K | $587K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$254,150 | -$240,150 | -$232,350 | -$211,750 | -$198,050 | -$190,550 | -$182,050 | -$96,650 | -$69,550 | -$6,750 | +$12,749 | +$38,142 | +$60,580 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.2% | -45.6% | -44.1% | -40.2% | -37.6% | -36.2% | -34.6% | -18.3% | -13.2% | -1.3% | +2.4% | +7.2% | +11.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $483K | $462K | $459K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $700K | $762K | $775K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$483K to $700K
40.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$459K to $775K
53.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Pennington area | $525K | $587K | +11.8% | |
| Central Pennington | $403K | $465K | +15.3% | |
| Rapid City East | $444K | $475K | +7.0% | |
| Rapid City | $415K | $440K | +5.9% | |
| West Pennington | $393K | $409K | +4.0% | |
| Mount Rushmore | $472K | $480K | +1.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Pennington area | $525K | $587K | +11.8% | |
| Central Pennington (Tract 010905) | $403K | $465K | +15.3% | |
| Central Pennington (Tract 010908) | $284K | $324K | +14.1% | |
| Rapid City area | $370K | $414K | +12.0% | |
| Rapid City (Tract 011001) | $332K | $371K | +11.9% | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010700) | $237K | $265K | +11.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Pennington area | $525K | $587K | $316K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010800) | $294K | $315K | $142K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010700) | $237K | $265K | $124K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010600) | $240K | $252K | $115K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010400) | $210K | $230K | $112K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010201) | $206K | $220K | $111K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Pennington, SD · ZIP 57702 · Census Tract 46103011004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$527K
Downside (P10)
$459K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$587K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$775K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $273K | $287K | $295K | $315K | $329K | $336K | $345K | $430K | $457K | $520K | $527K | $540K | $565K | $587K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$254,150 | -$240,150 | -$232,350 | -$211,750 | -$198,050 | -$190,550 | -$182,050 | -$96,650 | -$69,550 | -$6,750 | +$12,749 | +$38,142 | +$60,580 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.2% | -45.6% | -44.1% | -40.2% | -37.6% | -36.2% | -34.6% | -18.3% | -13.2% | -1.3% | +2.4% | +7.2% | +11.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $483K | $462K | $459K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $700K | $762K | $775K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$483K to $700K
40.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$459K to $775K
53.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Pennington area | $525K | $587K | +11.8% | |
| Central Pennington | $403K | $465K | +15.3% | |
| Rapid City East | $444K | $475K | +7.0% | |
| Rapid City | $415K | $440K | +5.9% | |
| West Pennington | $393K | $409K | +4.0% | |
| Mount Rushmore | $472K | $480K | +1.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Pennington area | $525K | $587K | +11.8% | |
| Central Pennington (Tract 010905) | $403K | $465K | +15.3% | |
| Central Pennington (Tract 010908) | $284K | $324K | +14.1% | |
| Rapid City area | $370K | $414K | +12.0% | |
| Rapid City (Tract 011001) | $332K | $371K | +11.9% | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010700) | $237K | $265K | +11.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Pennington area | $525K | $587K | $316K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010800) | $294K | $315K | $142K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010700) | $237K | $265K | $124K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010600) | $240K | $252K | $115K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010400) | $210K | $230K | $112K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010201) | $206K | $220K | $111K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
