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Pennington, SD · ZIP 57703 · Census Tract 46103010907 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$378K
Downside (P10)
$330K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$414K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$528K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $143K | $187K | $179K | $206K | $224K | $235K | $272K | $331K | $355K | $361K | $378K | $378K | $400K | $414K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$234,980 | -$191,380 | -$199,180 | -$172,880 | -$154,880 | -$143,280 | -$106,680 | -$47,780 | -$23,280 | -$16,980 | -$692 | +$21,328 | +$35,823 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -62.1% | -50.6% | -52.6% | -45.7% | -40.9% | -37.9% | -28.2% | -12.6% | -6.2% | -4.5% | -0.2% | +5.6% | +9.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $332K | $337K | $330K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $461K | $484K | $528K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$332K to $461K
34.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$330K to $528K
47.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid City area | $370K | $414K | +12.0% | |
| Central Pennington | $403K | $465K | +15.3% | |
| Rapid City (Tract 011001) | $332K | $371K | +11.9% | |
| Mount Rushmore area | $369K | $404K | +9.4% | |
| Rapid City (Tract 011002) | $415K | $440K | +5.9% | |
| West Pennington | $393K | $409K | +4.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid City area | $370K | $414K | +12.0% | |
| Central Pennington (Tract 010905) | $403K | $465K | +15.3% | |
| Central Pennington (Tract 010908) | $284K | $324K | +14.1% | |
| Rapid City (Tract 011001) | $332K | $371K | +11.9% | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010700) | $237K | $265K | +11.8% | |
| Central Pennington area | $525K | $587K | +11.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid City area | $370K | $414K | $198K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010800) | $294K | $315K | $142K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010700) | $237K | $265K | $124K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010600) | $240K | $252K | $115K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010400) | $210K | $230K | $112K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010201) | $206K | $220K | $111K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Pennington, SD · ZIP 57703 · Census Tract 46103010907 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$378K
Downside (P10)
$330K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$414K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$528K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $143K | $187K | $179K | $206K | $224K | $235K | $272K | $331K | $355K | $361K | $378K | $378K | $400K | $414K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$234,980 | -$191,380 | -$199,180 | -$172,880 | -$154,880 | -$143,280 | -$106,680 | -$47,780 | -$23,280 | -$16,980 | -$692 | +$21,328 | +$35,823 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -62.1% | -50.6% | -52.6% | -45.7% | -40.9% | -37.9% | -28.2% | -12.6% | -6.2% | -4.5% | -0.2% | +5.6% | +9.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $332K | $337K | $330K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $461K | $484K | $528K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$332K to $461K
34.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$330K to $528K
47.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid City area | $370K | $414K | +12.0% | |
| Central Pennington | $403K | $465K | +15.3% | |
| Rapid City (Tract 011001) | $332K | $371K | +11.9% | |
| Mount Rushmore area | $369K | $404K | +9.4% | |
| Rapid City (Tract 011002) | $415K | $440K | +5.9% | |
| West Pennington | $393K | $409K | +4.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid City area | $370K | $414K | +12.0% | |
| Central Pennington (Tract 010905) | $403K | $465K | +15.3% | |
| Central Pennington (Tract 010908) | $284K | $324K | +14.1% | |
| Rapid City (Tract 011001) | $332K | $371K | +11.9% | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010700) | $237K | $265K | +11.8% | |
| Central Pennington area | $525K | $587K | +11.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid City area | $370K | $414K | $198K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010800) | $294K | $315K | $142K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010700) | $237K | $265K | $124K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010600) | $240K | $252K | $115K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010400) | $210K | $230K | $112K | |
| Rapid City (Tract 010201) | $206K | $220K | $111K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
