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Philadelphia, PA · ZIP 19139 · Census Tract 42101010500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$193K
Downside (P10)
$161K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$216K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$264K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $97K | $94K | $91K | $94K | $101K | $98K | $173K | $155K | $179K | $183K | $193K | $198K | $208K | $216K |
| YoY Change | -3.6% | -3.0% | +3.2% | +7.1% | -2.3% | +76.2% | -10.5% | +15.3% | +2.5% | +5.3% | +2.6% | +5.0% | +3.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $165K | $162K | $161K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $234K | $262K | $264K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$165K to $234K
35.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$161K to $264K
47.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | $190K | $216K | +13.5% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 011400) | $193K | $215K | +11.2% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 031300) | $194K | $215K | +10.5% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 024900) | $195K | $211K | +8.4% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 011500) | $192K | $201K | +4.8% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 026600) | $192K | $199K | +4.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | $190K | $216K | +13.5% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 025200) | $225K | $282K | +25.3% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 000806) | $374K | $452K | +21.0% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 006700) | $122K | $147K | +20.0% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 036700) | $801K | $958K | +19.6% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 007300) | $333K | $396K | +19.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | $190K | $216K | $103K | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 029300) | $80K | $83K | $42K | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 019900) | $71K | $76K | $40K | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 017701) | $59K | $67K | $40K | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 017300) | $68K | $74K | $35K | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 016901) | $64K | $66K | $29K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.