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Lawrence, PA · ZIP 16117 · Census Tract 42073011700 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$151K
Downside (P10)
$120K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$168K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$219K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $98K | $98K | $99K | $100K | $101K | $99K | $99K | $123K | $131K | $143K | $151K | $153K | $164K | $168K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$52,825 | -$52,725 | -$51,625 | -$51,525 | -$49,925 | -$51,925 | -$51,925 | -$27,625 | -$19,625 | -$8,225 | +$1,840 | +$13,263 | +$17,088 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -35.0% | -34.9% | -34.2% | -34.1% | -33.1% | -34.4% | -34.4% | -18.3% | -13.0% | -5.4% | +1.2% | +8.8% | +11.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $129K | $129K | $120K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $187K | $204K | $219K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$129K to $187K
38.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$120K to $219K
58.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellwood City area | $145K | $168K | +15.6% | |
| Ellwood City | $155K | $171K | +10.7% | |
| North Beaver | $151K | $167K | +10.7% | |
| Shenango (Tract 011100) | $155K | $169K | +9.0% | |
| Pulaski | $158K | $171K | +8.7% | |
| Shenango (Tract 011000) | $166K | $175K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellwood City area | $145K | $168K | +15.6% | |
| New Wilmington | $215K | $256K | +19.5% | |
| Slippery Rock | $192K | $221K | +15.3% | |
| Washington area | $204K | $234K | +14.9% | |
| Union | $132K | $150K | +13.6% | |
| New Castle | $110K | $125K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellwood City area | $145K | $168K | $98K | |
| Ellwood City | $80K | $84K | $42K | |
| New Castle (Tract 000800) | $68K | $76K | $40K | |
| New Castle (Tract 000700) | $53K | $54K | $38K | |
| New Castle (Tract 000900) | $50K | $56K | $24K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Lawrence, PA · ZIP 16117 · Census Tract 42073011700 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$151K
Downside (P10)
$120K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$168K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$219K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $98K | $98K | $99K | $100K | $101K | $99K | $99K | $123K | $131K | $143K | $151K | $153K | $164K | $168K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$52,825 | -$52,725 | -$51,625 | -$51,525 | -$49,925 | -$51,925 | -$51,925 | -$27,625 | -$19,625 | -$8,225 | +$1,840 | +$13,263 | +$17,088 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -35.0% | -34.9% | -34.2% | -34.1% | -33.1% | -34.4% | -34.4% | -18.3% | -13.0% | -5.4% | +1.2% | +8.8% | +11.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $129K | $129K | $120K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $187K | $204K | $219K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$129K to $187K
38.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$120K to $219K
58.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellwood City area | $145K | $168K | +15.6% | |
| Ellwood City | $155K | $171K | +10.7% | |
| North Beaver | $151K | $167K | +10.7% | |
| Shenango (Tract 011100) | $155K | $169K | +9.0% | |
| Pulaski | $158K | $171K | +8.7% | |
| Shenango (Tract 011000) | $166K | $175K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellwood City area | $145K | $168K | +15.6% | |
| New Wilmington | $215K | $256K | +19.5% | |
| Slippery Rock | $192K | $221K | +15.3% | |
| Washington area | $204K | $234K | +14.9% | |
| Union | $132K | $150K | +13.6% | |
| New Castle | $110K | $125K | +13.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellwood City area | $145K | $168K | $98K | |
| Ellwood City | $80K | $84K | $42K | |
| New Castle (Tract 000800) | $68K | $76K | $40K | |
| New Castle (Tract 000700) | $53K | $54K | $38K | |
| New Castle (Tract 000900) | $50K | $56K | $24K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
