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Lancaster, PA · ZIP 17552 · Census Tract 42071010902 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$209K
Downside (P10)
$181K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$216K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$276K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $161K | $174K | $205K | $211K | $204K | $209K | $209K | $220K | $216K |
| YoY Change | +7.9% | +17.9% | +2.8% | -3.5% | +2.8% | -0.1% | +5.4% | -2.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $183K | $186K | $181K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $252K | $269K | $276K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$183K to $252K
33.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$181K to $276K
43.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Joy · 17552 · (Tract 109.2) | $204K | $216K | +5.9% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 014700) | $194K | $217K | +11.9% | |
| Columbia | $199K | $221K | +11.0% | |
| Ephrata | $205K | $227K | +10.4% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 001100) | $192K | $201K | +4.6% | |
| Marietta | $213K | $222K | +4.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Joy · 17552 · (Tract 109.2) | $204K | $216K | +5.9% | |
| Ephrata | $364K | $428K | +17.6% | |
| Mountville | $288K | $338K | +17.5% | |
| Salisbury | $350K | $408K | +16.6% | |
| Drumore area | $324K | $375K | +15.7% | |
| Millersville | $297K | $343K | +15.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Joy · 17552 · (Tract 109.2) | $204K | $216K | $95K | |
| Columbia (Tract 011300) | $227K | $258K | $103K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 001400) | $178K | $195K | $102K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 001000) | $175K | $190K | $84K | |
| Columbia (Tract 011200) | $126K | $140K | $74K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 000800) | $132K | $136K | $59K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.