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Fayette, PA · ZIP 15401 · Census Tract 42051261800 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$146K
Downside (P10)
$114K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$150K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$248K
+70% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +70%. The model forecasts this with 51% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $89K | $91K | $95K | $99K | $91K | $99K | $108K | $116K | $127K | $144K | $146K | $146K | $147K | $150K |
| YoY Change | +2.3% | +5.1% | +4.0% | -7.9% | +8.3% | +9.1% | +8.1% | +9.0% | +13.6% | +1.3% | -0.3% | +1.0% | +1.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $127K | $123K | $114K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $183K | $211K | $248K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$127K to $183K
38.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$114K to $248K
89.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Union | $147K | $150K | +1.8% | |
| Georges | $153K | $173K | +13.1% | |
| Springfield | $154K | $169K | +10.3% | |
| Washington | $137K | $149K | +8.8% | |
| Masontown | $128K | $138K | +7.2% | |
| Connellsville | $155K | $157K | +1.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Union | $147K | $150K | +1.8% | |
| Redstone | $81K | $92K | +14.9% | |
| Uniontown | $65K | $75K | +14.3% | |
| Dunbar (Tract 260900) | $203K | $232K | +14.3% | |
| Dunbar (Tract 262600) | $112K | $128K | +14.2% | |
| North Union | $99K | $113K | +14.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Union | $147K | $150K | $134K | |
| German | $125K | $128K | $48K | |
| Brownsville | $69K | $74K | $45K | |
| Dunbar | $112K | $128K | $43K | |
| Connellsville | $89K | $93K | $42K | |
| Redstone | $81K | $92K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.