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Erie, PA · ZIP 16407 · Census Tract 42049011802 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$159K
Downside (P10)
$135K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$176K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$226K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $113K | $117K | $116K | $122K | $125K | $124K | $125K | $152K | $151K | $152K | $159K | $162K | $170K | $176K |
| YoY Change | +3.4% | -1.2% | +5.5% | +2.3% | -0.6% | +0.5% | +21.5% | -0.5% | +1.1% | +4.3% | +2.1% | +4.7% | +3.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $139K | $137K | $135K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $187K | $204K | $226K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$139K to $187K
29.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$135K to $226K
51.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne area | $154K | $176K | +14.5% | |
| Springfield | $156K | $175K | +12.2% | |
| North East | $170K | $188K | +10.5% | |
| Erie (Tract 003000) | $162K | $177K | +9.5% | |
| Lake City area | $167K | $179K | +6.8% | |
| Erie (Tract 002100) | $145K | $151K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne area | $154K | $176K | +14.5% | |
| Erie (Tract 002600) | $110K | $129K | +17.3% | |
| Erie (Tract 000600) | $119K | $139K | +17.1% | |
| Erie (Tract 001400) | $53K | $61K | +15.2% | |
| Lawrence Park | $143K | $164K | +14.8% | |
| Millcreek | $248K | $284K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne area | $154K | $176K | $91K | |
| Erie (Tract 000500) | $60K | $64K | $33K | |
| Erie (Tract 001400) | $53K | $61K | $32K | |
| Erie (Tract 000400) | $60K | $65K | $32K | |
| Erie (Tract 001800) | $50K | $52K | $24K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.