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Dauphin, PA · ZIP 17048 · Census Tract 42043025100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$187K
Downside (P10)
$177K
-6% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$209K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$298K
+59% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -6% to +59%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $134K | $138K | $146K | $148K | $141K | $152K | $151K | $164K | $166K | $179K | $187K | $194K | $208K | $209K |
| YoY Change | +2.8% | +6.0% | +1.2% | -4.5% | +7.9% | -0.7% | +8.6% | +1.0% | +8.2% | +4.4% | +3.8% | +6.9% | +0.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $171K | $177K | $177K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $237K | $267K | $298K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$171K to $237K
33.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$177K to $298K
58.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lykens area | $186K | $209K | +12.2% | |
| Upper Paxton | $191K | $217K | +13.5% | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 020400) | $198K | $223K | +12.6% | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 020800) | $183K | $196K | +7.1% | |
| Paxtang | $182K | $192K | +5.1% | |
| Susquehanna | $194K | $200K | +3.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lykens area | $186K | $209K | +12.2% | |
| Lower Paxton (Tract 022605) | $281K | $342K | +21.6% | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021100) | $104K | $121K | +16.2% | |
| Millersburg | $137K | $159K | +16.2% | |
| Lower Paxton (Tract 022606) | $227K | $259K | +14.1% | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 020500) | $216K | $247K | +13.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lykens area | $186K | $209K | $121K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021700) | $119K | $128K | $59K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021500) | $95K | $107K | $51K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021200) | $97K | $102K | $51K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021100) | $104K | $121K | $50K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 025500) | $89K | $96K | $45K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.