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Kay, OK · ZIP 74631 · Census Tract 40071001301 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$90K
Downside (P10)
$79K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$97K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$121K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $51K | $50K | $50K | $50K | $53K | $52K | $52K | $81K | $78K | $88K | $90K | $91K | $95K | $97K | $90K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$39,244 | -$40,244 | -$40,544 | -$40,444 | -$36,844 | -$38,044 | -$37,744 | -$8,744 | -$12,044 | -$2,444 | +$516 | +$4,657 | +$6,754 | +$81 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.5% | -44.6% | -45.0% | -44.9% | -40.9% | -42.2% | -41.9% | -9.7% | -13.4% | -2.7% | +0.6% | +5.2% | +7.5% | +0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $77K | $76K | $79K | $79K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $106K | $118K | $121K | $103K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$77K to $106K
31.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$79K to $103K
26.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackwell | $89K | $97K | +8.9% | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000201) | $109K | $126K | +15.5% | |
| Tonkawa | $90K | $97K | +8.7% | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000100) | $89K | $97K | +8.4% | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000500) | $94K | $102K | +8.4% | |
| Braman area | $89K | $95K | +6.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackwell | $89K | $97K | +8.9% | |
| Kay (Tract 840000) | $52K | $70K | +35.8% | |
| Kay (Tract 160007) | $67K | $86K | +28.5% | |
| Kay (Tract 760009) | $118K | $139K | +17.8% | |
| Kay (Tract 520003) | $470K | $544K | +15.6% | |
| Ponca City | $109K | $126K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackwell | $89K | $97K | $42K | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000500) | $94K | $102K | $65K | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000100) | $89K | $97K | $58K | |
| Braman area | $89K | $95K | $55K | |
| Tonkawa | $90K | $97K | $51K | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000400) | $61K | $68K | $32K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Kay, OK · ZIP 74631 · Census Tract 40071001301 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$90K
Downside (P10)
$79K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$97K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$121K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $51K | $50K | $50K | $50K | $53K | $52K | $52K | $81K | $78K | $88K | $90K | $91K | $95K | $97K | $90K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$39,244 | -$40,244 | -$40,544 | -$40,444 | -$36,844 | -$38,044 | -$37,744 | -$8,744 | -$12,044 | -$2,444 | +$516 | +$4,657 | +$6,754 | +$81 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.5% | -44.6% | -45.0% | -44.9% | -40.9% | -42.2% | -41.9% | -9.7% | -13.4% | -2.7% | +0.6% | +5.2% | +7.5% | +0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $77K | $76K | $79K | $79K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $106K | $118K | $121K | $103K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$77K to $106K
31.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$79K to $103K
26.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackwell | $89K | $97K | +8.9% | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000201) | $109K | $126K | +15.5% | |
| Tonkawa | $90K | $97K | +8.7% | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000100) | $89K | $97K | +8.4% | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000500) | $94K | $102K | +8.4% | |
| Braman area | $89K | $95K | +6.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackwell | $89K | $97K | +8.9% | |
| Kay (Tract 840000) | $52K | $70K | +35.8% | |
| Kay (Tract 160007) | $67K | $86K | +28.5% | |
| Kay (Tract 760009) | $118K | $139K | +17.8% | |
| Kay (Tract 520003) | $470K | $544K | +15.6% | |
| Ponca City | $109K | $126K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackwell | $89K | $97K | $42K | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000500) | $94K | $102K | $65K | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000100) | $89K | $97K | $58K | |
| Braman area | $89K | $95K | $55K | |
| Tonkawa | $90K | $97K | $51K | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000400) | $61K | $68K | $32K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
