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Kay, OK · Census Tract 40071520003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$470K
Downside (P10)
$416K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$569K
+21% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$838K
+78% by 2030
Base case: +21% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +78%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $470K | $532K | $537K | $544K | $569K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$61,227 | +$66,284 | +$73,231 | +$98,915 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +13.0% | +14.1% | +15.6% | +21.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $448K | $411K | $404K | $416K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $659K | $725K | $777K | $838K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$448K to $659K
39.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$416K to $838K
74.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520003 | $470K | $569K | +21.0% | |
| Kay (Tract 040004) | $345K | $398K | +15.3% | |
| Kay (Tract 080006) | $374K | $426K | +14.0% | |
| Kay (Tract 720007) | $424K | $473K | +11.7% | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000300) | $191K | $210K | +9.5% | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000600) | $242K | $264K | +9.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520003 | $470K | $569K | +21.0% | |
| Kay (Tract 840000) | $52K | $77K | +49.1% | |
| Kay (Tract 160007) | $67K | $95K | +42.1% | |
| Kay (Tract 760009) | $118K | $151K | +28.2% | |
| Kay (Tract 040004) | $345K | $398K | +15.3% | |
| Ponca City | $109K | $126K | +15.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520003 | $470K | $569K | $422K | |
| Braman area | $90K | $95K | $55K | |
| Tonkawa | $90K | $97K | $51K | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000400) | $62K | $68K | $32K | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000500) | $97K | $96K | $25K | |
| Blackwell | $90K | $90K | $24K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Kay, OK · Census Tract 40071520003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$470K
Downside (P10)
$416K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$569K
+21% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$838K
+78% by 2030
Base case: +21% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +78%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $470K | $532K | $537K | $544K | $569K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$61,227 | +$66,284 | +$73,231 | +$98,915 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +13.0% | +14.1% | +15.6% | +21.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $448K | $411K | $404K | $416K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $659K | $725K | $777K | $838K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$448K to $659K
39.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$416K to $838K
74.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520003 | $470K | $569K | +21.0% | |
| Kay (Tract 040004) | $345K | $398K | +15.3% | |
| Kay (Tract 080006) | $374K | $426K | +14.0% | |
| Kay (Tract 720007) | $424K | $473K | +11.7% | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000300) | $191K | $210K | +9.5% | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000600) | $242K | $264K | +9.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520003 | $470K | $569K | +21.0% | |
| Kay (Tract 840000) | $52K | $77K | +49.1% | |
| Kay (Tract 160007) | $67K | $95K | +42.1% | |
| Kay (Tract 760009) | $118K | $151K | +28.2% | |
| Kay (Tract 040004) | $345K | $398K | +15.3% | |
| Ponca City | $109K | $126K | +15.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520003 | $470K | $569K | $422K | |
| Braman area | $90K | $95K | $55K | |
| Tonkawa | $90K | $97K | $51K | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000400) | $62K | $68K | $32K | |
| Ponca City (Tract 000500) | $97K | $96K | $25K | |
| Blackwell | $90K | $90K | $24K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
