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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Cherokee, OK · ZIP 74464 · Census Tract 40021978100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$205K
Downside (P10)
$165K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$218K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$287K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $134K | $133K | $117K | $125K | $130K | $151K | $146K | $162K | $181K | $196K | $205K | $211K | $220K | $218K | $204K |
| YoY Change | -1.3% | -11.8% | +7.2% | +3.3% | +16.8% | -3.5% | +11.1% | +11.7% | +8.2% | +4.6% | +2.7% | +4.2% | -1.0% | -6.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $172K | $167K | $165K | $182K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $251K | $267K | $287K | $226K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$172K to $251K
37.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$182K to $226K
21.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahlequah | $199K | $218K | +9.3% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977902) | $185K | $217K | +17.2% | |
| Hulbert | $210K | $244K | +16.0% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977901) | $191K | $218K | +13.7% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977801) | $211K | $231K | +9.6% | |
| North Cherokee | $209K | $221K | +5.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahlequah | $199K | $218K | +9.3% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977902) | $185K | $217K | +17.2% | |
| Hulbert | $210K | $244K | +16.0% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977901) | $191K | $218K | +13.7% | |
| South Cherokee | $179K | $199K | +11.5% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977801) | $211K | $231K | +9.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahlequah | $199K | $218K | $122K | |
| South Cherokee (Tract 978301) | $179K | $199K | $93K | |
| East Cherokee (Tract 978201) | $157K | $170K | $87K | |
| South Cherokee (Tract 978302) | $154K | $161K | $80K | |
| Tahlequah | $182K | $191K | $76K | |
| East Cherokee (Tract 978202) | $119K | $125K | $63K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.