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Cherokee, OK · ZIP 74464 · Census Tract 40021977600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$207K
Downside (P10)
$158K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$221K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$301K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $97K | $98K | $105K | $114K | $127K | $142K | $144K | $163K | $180K | $202K | $207K | $215K | $225K | $221K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$109,361 | -$108,561 | -$101,461 | -$93,161 | -$79,861 | -$65,061 | -$63,261 | -$43,961 | -$26,561 | -$5,261 | +$8,532 | +$17,869 | +$14,400 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -52.9% | -52.5% | -49.1% | -45.1% | -38.6% | -31.5% | -30.6% | -21.3% | -12.8% | -2.5% | +4.1% | +8.6% | +7.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $174K | $170K | $158K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $259K | $276K | $301K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$174K to $259K
39.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$158K to $301K
64.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Cherokee | $209K | $221K | +5.9% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977902) | $185K | $217K | +17.2% | |
| Hulbert | $210K | $244K | +16.0% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977901) | $191K | $218K | +13.7% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977801) | $211K | $231K | +9.6% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 978100) | $199K | $218K | +9.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Cherokee | $209K | $221K | +5.9% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977902) | $185K | $217K | +17.2% | |
| Hulbert | $210K | $244K | +16.0% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977901) | $191K | $218K | +13.7% | |
| South Cherokee | $179K | $199K | +11.5% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977801) | $211K | $231K | +9.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Cherokee | $209K | $221K | $143K | |
| South Cherokee (Tract 978301) | $179K | $199K | $93K | |
| East Cherokee (Tract 978201) | $157K | $170K | $87K | |
| South Cherokee (Tract 978302) | $154K | $161K | $80K | |
| Tahlequah | $182K | $191K | $76K | |
| East Cherokee (Tract 978202) | $119K | $125K | $63K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Cherokee, OK · ZIP 74464 · Census Tract 40021977600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$207K
Downside (P10)
$158K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$221K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$301K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $97K | $98K | $105K | $114K | $127K | $142K | $144K | $163K | $180K | $202K | $207K | $215K | $225K | $221K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$109,361 | -$108,561 | -$101,461 | -$93,161 | -$79,861 | -$65,061 | -$63,261 | -$43,961 | -$26,561 | -$5,261 | +$8,532 | +$17,869 | +$14,400 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -52.9% | -52.5% | -49.1% | -45.1% | -38.6% | -31.5% | -30.6% | -21.3% | -12.8% | -2.5% | +4.1% | +8.6% | +7.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $174K | $170K | $158K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $259K | $276K | $301K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$174K to $259K
39.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$158K to $301K
64.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Cherokee | $209K | $221K | +5.9% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977902) | $185K | $217K | +17.2% | |
| Hulbert | $210K | $244K | +16.0% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977901) | $191K | $218K | +13.7% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977801) | $211K | $231K | +9.6% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 978100) | $199K | $218K | +9.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Cherokee | $209K | $221K | +5.9% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977902) | $185K | $217K | +17.2% | |
| Hulbert | $210K | $244K | +16.0% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977901) | $191K | $218K | +13.7% | |
| South Cherokee | $179K | $199K | +11.5% | |
| Tahlequah (Tract 977801) | $211K | $231K | +9.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Cherokee | $209K | $221K | $143K | |
| South Cherokee (Tract 978301) | $179K | $199K | $93K | |
| East Cherokee (Tract 978201) | $157K | $170K | $87K | |
| South Cherokee (Tract 978302) | $154K | $161K | $80K | |
| Tahlequah | $182K | $191K | $76K | |
| East Cherokee (Tract 978202) | $119K | $125K | $63K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
