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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Manhattan, NY · ZIP 10016 · Census Tract 36061008000 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$961K
Downside (P10)
$794K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.01M
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.31M
+36% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $815K | $745K | $859K | $992K | $1.0M | $986K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $948K | $961K | $970K | $978K | $1.0M |
| YoY Change | -8.6% | +15.3% | +15.5% | +1.4% | -1.9% | +12.8% | +11.4% | -13.6% | -11.6% | +1.5% | +0.9% | +0.8% | +3.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $830K | $819K | $794K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$830K to $1.18M
36.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$794K to $1.31M
50.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murray Hill | $955K | $1.01M | +5.6% | |
| Upper East Side (Tract 012601) | $973K | $1.15M | +18.1% | |
| Upper East Side (Tract 013800) | $946K | $1.07M | +12.8% | |
| Upper East Side (Tract 014401) | $953K | $1.04M | +8.9% | |
| East Village | $950K | $1.03M | +8.3% | |
| Times Square | $972K | $1.01M | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murray Hill | $955K | $1.01M | +5.6% | |
| Hamilton Heights | $1.03M | $1.27M | +24.0% | |
| Midtown East | $728K | $896K | +23.1% | |
| Upper West Side | $2.01M | $2.43M | +21.0% | |
| Gramercy | $1.11M | $1.33M | +20.4% | |
| West Village | $1.43M | $1.71M | +19.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murray Hill | $955K | $1.01M | $512K | |
| Times Square | $462K | $513K | $218K | |
| Fort George | $113K | $125K | $72K | |
| Chelsea | $140K | $155K | $68K | |
| Upper West Side | $101K | $110K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.