Manhattan, NY · ZIP 10031 · Census Tract 36061023300 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.07M
Downside (P10)
$961K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.27M
+19% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.59M
+49% by 2030
Base case: +19% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +49%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Manhattan markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $286K | $831K | $857K | $991K | $932K | $1.1M | $964K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.0M |
| YoY Change | +190.6% | +3.2% | +15.6% | -6.0% | +15.4% | -10.4% | +5.6% | +4.9% | +6.6% | +5.3% | +6.1% | -18.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $964K | $933K | $961K | $917K | |||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$964K to $1.36M
34.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$917K to $1.17M
24.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton Heights | $1.03M | $1.27M | +24.0% | |
| Financial District | $1.07M | $1.12M | +4.7% | |
| Upper West Side | $1.07M | $1.21M | +13.0% | |
| Sugar Hill | $1.08M | $1.28M | +18.8% | |
| Upper West Side | $1.08M | $1.16M | +7.3% | |
| Upper East Side | $1.08M | $1.18M | +9.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton Heights | $1.03M | $1.27M | +24.0% | |
| Midtown East | $728K | $896K | +23.1% | |
| Upper West Side | $2.01M | $2.43M | +21.0% | |
| Gramercy | $1.11M | $1.33M | +20.4% | |
| West Village | $1.43M | $1.71M | +19.8% | |
| Morningside Heights | $1.38M | $1.65M | +19.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton Heights | $1.03M | $1.27M | $628K | |
| Upper West Side | $101K | $110K | $47K | |
| Chelsea | $140K | $155K | $68K | |
| Fort George | $113K | $125K | $72K | |
| Times Square | $462K | $513K | $218K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.