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Bernalillo, NM · ZIP 87105 · Census Tract 35001004502 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$209K
Downside (P10)
$174K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$228K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$291K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $107K | $132K | $139K | $140K | $143K | $151K | $149K | $168K | $177K | $203K | $209K | $215K | $225K | $228K |
| YoY Change | +22.7% | +5.5% | +0.8% | +2.1% | +5.4% | -0.9% | +12.3% | +5.9% | +14.3% | +3.3% | +2.5% | +5.1% | +1.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $179K | $180K | $174K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $250K | $287K | $291K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$179K to $250K
33.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$174K to $291K
51.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Valley | $205K | $228K | +11.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000501) | $207K | $240K | +15.9% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000904) | $212K | $235K | +10.8% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004735) | $213K | $228K | +7.3% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004749) | $214K | $229K | +7.1% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000718) | $213K | $218K | +2.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Valley | $205K | $228K | +11.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004761) | $246K | $297K | +20.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000504) | $373K | $447K | +19.7% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000203) | $305K | $365K | +19.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 001201) | $271K | $319K | +17.9% | |
| South Valley | $234K | $276K | +17.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Valley | $205K | $228K | $118K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000907) | $120K | $132K | $76K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003723) | $141K | $149K | $67K | |
| West Bernalillo | $100K | $108K | $65K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.