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Bernalillo, NM · ZIP 87105 · Census Tract 35001004603 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$247K
Downside (P10)
$199K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$276K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$357K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $138K | $150K | $150K | $140K | $150K | $154K | $153K | $173K | $211K | $225K | $247K | $250K | $260K | $276K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$108,868 | -$96,668 | -$96,768 | -$106,768 | -$96,868 | -$93,168 | -$93,968 | -$74,168 | -$35,768 | -$21,968 | +$3,033 | +$13,248 | +$28,964 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -44.1% | -39.1% | -39.2% | -43.2% | -39.2% | -37.7% | -38.0% | -30.0% | -14.5% | -8.9% | +1.2% | +5.4% | +11.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $213K | $199K | $199K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $300K | $328K | $357K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$213K to $300K
34.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$199K to $357K
57.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Valley | $234K | $276K | +17.8% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000120) | $247K | $282K | +14.0% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 002900) | $244K | $275K | +12.4% | |
| East Bernalillo | $249K | $277K | +11.1% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000207) | $248K | $275K | +11.1% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000114) | $248K | $267K | +7.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Valley | $234K | $276K | +17.8% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000504) | $373K | $447K | +19.7% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000203) | $305K | $365K | +19.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 001201) | $271K | $319K | +17.9% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000503) | $312K | $366K | +17.4% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 001500) | $220K | $259K | +17.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Valley | $234K | $276K | $158K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004733) | $197K | $219K | $81K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000907) | $120K | $132K | $76K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003723) | $141K | $149K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Bernalillo, NM · ZIP 87105 · Census Tract 35001004603 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$247K
Downside (P10)
$199K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$276K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$357K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $138K | $150K | $150K | $140K | $150K | $154K | $153K | $173K | $211K | $225K | $247K | $250K | $260K | $276K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$108,868 | -$96,668 | -$96,768 | -$106,768 | -$96,868 | -$93,168 | -$93,968 | -$74,168 | -$35,768 | -$21,968 | +$3,033 | +$13,248 | +$28,964 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -44.1% | -39.1% | -39.2% | -43.2% | -39.2% | -37.7% | -38.0% | -30.0% | -14.5% | -8.9% | +1.2% | +5.4% | +11.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $213K | $199K | $199K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $300K | $328K | $357K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$213K to $300K
34.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$199K to $357K
57.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Valley | $234K | $276K | +17.8% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000120) | $247K | $282K | +14.0% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 002900) | $244K | $275K | +12.4% | |
| East Bernalillo | $249K | $277K | +11.1% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000207) | $248K | $275K | +11.1% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000114) | $248K | $267K | +7.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Valley | $234K | $276K | +17.8% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000504) | $373K | $447K | +19.7% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000203) | $305K | $365K | +19.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 001201) | $271K | $319K | +17.9% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000503) | $312K | $366K | +17.4% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 001500) | $220K | $259K | +17.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Valley | $234K | $276K | $158K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004733) | $197K | $219K | $81K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000907) | $120K | $132K | $76K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003723) | $141K | $149K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
