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Bernalillo, NM · ZIP 87121 · Census Tract 35001940700 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$148K
Downside (P10)
$132K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$160K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$209K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $75K | $76K | $93K | $90K | $81K | $74K | $83K | $92K | $107K | $145K | $148K | $150K | $157K | $160K |
| YoY Change | +1.3% | +21.7% | -2.5% | -10.2% | -8.8% | +11.6% | +11.6% | +15.8% | +35.3% | +2.6% | +1.1% | +4.6% | +2.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $136K | $135K | $132K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $182K | $200K | $209K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$136K to $182K
30.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$132K to $209K
47.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isleta Pueblo | $147K | $160K | +8.9% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004759) | $147K | $163K | +11.1% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003733) | $155K | $170K | +9.8% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 001300) | $155K | $169K | +8.7% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003723) | $141K | $149K | +5.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000717) | $146K | $153K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isleta Pueblo | $147K | $160K | +8.9% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004761) | $246K | $297K | +20.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000504) | $373K | $447K | +19.7% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000203) | $305K | $365K | +19.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 001201) | $271K | $319K | +17.9% | |
| South Valley | $234K | $276K | +17.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isleta Pueblo | $147K | $160K | $76K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000907) | $120K | $132K | $76K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003723) | $141K | $149K | $67K | |
| West Bernalillo | $100K | $108K | $65K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.