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Bernalillo, NM · ZIP 87104 · Census Tract 35001003001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$395K
Downside (P10)
$317K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$420K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$553K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $261K | $253K | $240K | $246K | $249K | $258K | $300K | $333K | $360K | $397K | $395K | $408K | $409K | $420K | $413K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$134,066 | -$141,866 | -$154,666 | -$148,866 | -$145,666 | -$137,066 | -$94,866 | -$62,266 | -$35,166 | +$1,534 | +$12,760 | +$13,991 | +$25,183 | +$17,549 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.9% | -35.9% | -39.1% | -37.7% | -36.9% | -34.7% | -24.0% | -15.8% | -8.9% | +0.4% | +3.2% | +3.5% | +6.4% | +4.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $332K | $319K | $317K | $364K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $479K | $505K | $553K | $466K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$332K to $479K
36.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$364K to $466K
24.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque · 87104 · (Tract 30.1) | $398K | $420K | +5.6% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003502) | $392K | $431K | +9.9% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000300) | $388K | $417K | +7.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003738) | $401K | $423K | +5.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004753) | $398K | $416K | +4.7% | |
| East Bernalillo | $390K | $408K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque · 87104 · (Tract 30.1) | $398K | $420K | +5.6% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000504) | $373K | $447K | +19.7% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000203) | $305K | $365K | +19.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 001201) | $271K | $319K | +17.9% | |
| South Valley | $234K | $276K | +17.8% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000503) | $312K | $366K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque · 87104 · (Tract 30.1) | $398K | $420K | $236K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004733) | $197K | $219K | $81K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000907) | $120K | $132K | $76K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003723) | $141K | $149K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Bernalillo, NM · ZIP 87104 · Census Tract 35001003001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$395K
Downside (P10)
$317K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$420K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$553K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $261K | $253K | $240K | $246K | $249K | $258K | $300K | $333K | $360K | $397K | $395K | $408K | $409K | $420K | $413K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$134,066 | -$141,866 | -$154,666 | -$148,866 | -$145,666 | -$137,066 | -$94,866 | -$62,266 | -$35,166 | +$1,534 | +$12,760 | +$13,991 | +$25,183 | +$17,549 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.9% | -35.9% | -39.1% | -37.7% | -36.9% | -34.7% | -24.0% | -15.8% | -8.9% | +0.4% | +3.2% | +3.5% | +6.4% | +4.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $332K | $319K | $317K | $364K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $479K | $505K | $553K | $466K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$332K to $479K
36.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$364K to $466K
24.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque · 87104 · (Tract 30.1) | $398K | $420K | +5.6% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003502) | $392K | $431K | +9.9% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000300) | $388K | $417K | +7.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003738) | $401K | $423K | +5.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004753) | $398K | $416K | +4.7% | |
| East Bernalillo | $390K | $408K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque · 87104 · (Tract 30.1) | $398K | $420K | +5.6% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000504) | $373K | $447K | +19.7% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000203) | $305K | $365K | +19.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 001201) | $271K | $319K | +17.9% | |
| South Valley | $234K | $276K | +17.8% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000503) | $312K | $366K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque · 87104 · (Tract 30.1) | $398K | $420K | $236K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004733) | $197K | $219K | $81K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000907) | $120K | $132K | $76K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003723) | $141K | $149K | $67K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
