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Ocean, NJ · ZIP 08757 · Census Tract 34029720204 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$424K
Downside (P10)
$336K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$461K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$599K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $248K | $241K | $243K | $244K | $244K | $260K | $276K | $310K | $374K | $406K | $424K | $426K | $447K | $461K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$175,714 | -$182,714 | -$180,714 | -$180,214 | -$180,314 | -$164,014 | -$148,514 | -$113,814 | -$49,914 | -$18,014 | +$2,285 | +$22,444 | +$37,241 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.4% | -43.1% | -42.6% | -42.5% | -42.5% | -38.7% | -35.0% | -26.8% | -11.8% | -4.2% | +0.5% | +5.3% | +8.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $367K | $360K | $336K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $531K | $536K | $599K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$367K to $531K
38.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$336K to $599K
57.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Lake Park | $420K | $461K | +9.7% | |
| Barnegat | $423K | $468K | +10.8% | |
| Toms River (Tract 722600) | $422K | $463K | +9.6% | |
| Toms River (Tract 723100) | $421K | $438K | +4.1% | |
| Little Egg Harbor (Tract 736001) | $417K | $432K | +3.7% | |
| Little Egg Harbor (Tract 736105) | $428K | $428K | +0.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Lake Park | $420K | $461K | +9.7% | |
| Lacey | $366K | $454K | +24.2% | |
| Pine Ridge at Crestwood | $138K | $165K | +18.9% | |
| Beachwood | $365K | $428K | +17.2% | |
| Lakewood | $502K | $584K | +16.3% | |
| Brick | $319K | $371K | +16.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Lake Park | $420K | $461K | $263K | |
| Pine Ridge at Crestwood | $138K | $165K | $96K | |
| Manchester | $99K | $101K | $58K | |
| Manchester area | $111K | $118K | $54K | |
| Crestwood Village (Tract 720104) | $89K | $92K | $53K | |
| Crestwood Village (Tract 720102) | $113K | $115K | $51K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Ocean, NJ · ZIP 08757 · Census Tract 34029720204 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$424K
Downside (P10)
$336K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$461K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$599K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $248K | $241K | $243K | $244K | $244K | $260K | $276K | $310K | $374K | $406K | $424K | $426K | $447K | $461K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$175,714 | -$182,714 | -$180,714 | -$180,214 | -$180,314 | -$164,014 | -$148,514 | -$113,814 | -$49,914 | -$18,014 | +$2,285 | +$22,444 | +$37,241 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.4% | -43.1% | -42.6% | -42.5% | -42.5% | -38.7% | -35.0% | -26.8% | -11.8% | -4.2% | +0.5% | +5.3% | +8.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $367K | $360K | $336K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $531K | $536K | $599K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$367K to $531K
38.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$336K to $599K
57.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Lake Park | $420K | $461K | +9.7% | |
| Barnegat | $423K | $468K | +10.8% | |
| Toms River (Tract 722600) | $422K | $463K | +9.6% | |
| Toms River (Tract 723100) | $421K | $438K | +4.1% | |
| Little Egg Harbor (Tract 736001) | $417K | $432K | +3.7% | |
| Little Egg Harbor (Tract 736105) | $428K | $428K | +0.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Lake Park | $420K | $461K | +9.7% | |
| Lacey | $366K | $454K | +24.2% | |
| Pine Ridge at Crestwood | $138K | $165K | +18.9% | |
| Beachwood | $365K | $428K | +17.2% | |
| Lakewood | $502K | $584K | +16.3% | |
| Brick | $319K | $371K | +16.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Lake Park | $420K | $461K | $263K | |
| Pine Ridge at Crestwood | $138K | $165K | $96K | |
| Manchester | $99K | $101K | $58K | |
| Manchester area | $111K | $118K | $54K | |
| Crestwood Village (Tract 720104) | $89K | $92K | $53K | |
| Crestwood Village (Tract 720102) | $113K | $115K | $51K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
