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Essex, NJ · ZIP 07041 · Census Tract 34013020200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.04M
Downside (P10)
$855K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.10M
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.42M
+37% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $695K | $726K | $746K | $783K | $817K | $860K | $884K | $1.0M | $997K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$340,087 | -$308,987 | -$288,987 | -$252,787 | -$218,187 | -$175,387 | -$151,487 | -$28,687 | -$38,087 | -$10,587 | +$23,496 | +$37,905 | +$64,434 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.8% | -29.8% | -27.9% | -24.4% | -21.1% | -16.9% | -14.6% | -2.8% | -3.7% | -1.0% | +2.3% | +3.7% | +6.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $902K | $884K | $855K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.4M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$902K to $1.3M
33.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$855K to $1.4M
51.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montclair (Tract 016400) | $1.17M | $1.35M | +14.6% | |
| Upper Montclair (Tract 016300) | $970K | $1.04M | +7.6% | |
| Upper Montclair (Tract 016100) | $959K | $1.02M | +6.5% | |
| Upper Montclair (Tract 016200) | $1.04M | $1.10M | +5.9% | |
| Montclair (Tract 016500) | $960K | $962K | +0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Orange (Tract 009900) | $501K | $597K | +19.1% | |
| Newark (Tract 002500) | $371K | $440K | +18.5% | |
| East Orange (Tract 010000) | $395K | $468K | +18.5% | |
| Newark (Tract 009700) | $340K | $400K | +17.9% | |
| Newark (Tract 008000) | $402K | $474K | +17.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Orange | $193K | $205K | $126K | |
| Newark (Tract 005000) | $327K | $340K | $118K | |
| Newark (Tract 008900) | $248K | $271K | $104K | |
| Newark (Tract 002800) | $164K | $184K | $98K | |
| Irvington | $147K | $166K | $95K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Essex, NJ · ZIP 07041 · Census Tract 34013020200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.04M
Downside (P10)
$855K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.10M
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.42M
+37% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $695K | $726K | $746K | $783K | $817K | $860K | $884K | $1.0M | $997K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$340,087 | -$308,987 | -$288,987 | -$252,787 | -$218,187 | -$175,387 | -$151,487 | -$28,687 | -$38,087 | -$10,587 | +$23,496 | +$37,905 | +$64,434 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.8% | -29.8% | -27.9% | -24.4% | -21.1% | -16.9% | -14.6% | -2.8% | -3.7% | -1.0% | +2.3% | +3.7% | +6.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $902K | $884K | $855K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.4M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$902K to $1.3M
33.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$855K to $1.4M
51.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montclair (Tract 016400) | $1.17M | $1.35M | +14.6% | |
| Upper Montclair (Tract 016300) | $970K | $1.04M | +7.6% | |
| Upper Montclair (Tract 016100) | $959K | $1.02M | +6.5% | |
| Upper Montclair (Tract 016200) | $1.04M | $1.10M | +5.9% | |
| Montclair (Tract 016500) | $960K | $962K | +0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Orange (Tract 009900) | $501K | $597K | +19.1% | |
| Newark (Tract 002500) | $371K | $440K | +18.5% | |
| East Orange (Tract 010000) | $395K | $468K | +18.5% | |
| Newark (Tract 009700) | $340K | $400K | +17.9% | |
| Newark (Tract 008000) | $402K | $474K | +17.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Orange | $193K | $205K | $126K | |
| Newark (Tract 005000) | $327K | $340K | $118K | |
| Newark (Tract 008900) | $248K | $271K | $104K | |
| Newark (Tract 002800) | $164K | $184K | $98K | |
| Irvington | $147K | $166K | $95K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
