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Orange, NC · ZIP 27516 · Census Tract 37135011300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$296K
Downside (P10)
$244K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$320K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$409K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $318K | $306K | $298K | $278K | $269K | $295K | $290K | $361K | $266K | $290K | $296K | $298K | $312K | $320K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$21,142 | +$9,342 | +$1,842 | -$18,558 | -$27,958 | -$1,158 | -$6,658 | +$64,142 | -$30,858 | -$6,258 | +$1,437 | +$15,985 | +$23,246 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +7.1% | +3.2% | +0.6% | -6.3% | -9.4% | -0.4% | -2.2% | +21.6% | -10.4% | -2.1% | +0.5% | +5.4% | +7.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $262K | $262K | $244K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $359K | $387K | $409K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$262K to $359K
32.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$244K to $409K
51.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill | $298K | $320K | +7.4% | |
| Cedar Grove (Tract 010803) | $331K | $391K | +18.4% | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011104) | $334K | $381K | +14.2% | |
| Cedar Grove (Tract 010804) | $255K | $280K | +9.4% | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011105) | $283K | $306K | +8.0% | |
| Little River | $336K | $351K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill | $298K | $320K | +7.4% | |
| Cedar Grove | $331K | $391K | +18.4% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 010701) | $528K | $617K | +16.8% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 011500) | $988K | $1.15M | +16.5% | |
| Hillsborough | $374K | $433K | +15.7% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 010706) | $585K | $672K | +14.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill | $298K | $320K | $165K | |
| Eno area | $363K | $360K | $171K | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011105) | $283K | $306K | $170K | |
| Little River | $336K | $351K | $168K | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011103) | $251K | $271K | $157K | |
| Cedar Grove | $255K | $280K | $157K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Orange, NC · ZIP 27516 · Census Tract 37135011300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$296K
Downside (P10)
$244K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$320K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$409K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $318K | $306K | $298K | $278K | $269K | $295K | $290K | $361K | $266K | $290K | $296K | $298K | $312K | $320K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$21,142 | +$9,342 | +$1,842 | -$18,558 | -$27,958 | -$1,158 | -$6,658 | +$64,142 | -$30,858 | -$6,258 | +$1,437 | +$15,985 | +$23,246 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +7.1% | +3.2% | +0.6% | -6.3% | -9.4% | -0.4% | -2.2% | +21.6% | -10.4% | -2.1% | +0.5% | +5.4% | +7.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $262K | $262K | $244K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $359K | $387K | $409K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$262K to $359K
32.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$244K to $409K
51.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill | $298K | $320K | +7.4% | |
| Cedar Grove (Tract 010803) | $331K | $391K | +18.4% | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011104) | $334K | $381K | +14.2% | |
| Cedar Grove (Tract 010804) | $255K | $280K | +9.4% | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011105) | $283K | $306K | +8.0% | |
| Little River | $336K | $351K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill | $298K | $320K | +7.4% | |
| Cedar Grove | $331K | $391K | +18.4% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 010701) | $528K | $617K | +16.8% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 011500) | $988K | $1.15M | +16.5% | |
| Hillsborough | $374K | $433K | +15.7% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 010706) | $585K | $672K | +14.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill | $298K | $320K | $165K | |
| Eno area | $363K | $360K | $171K | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011105) | $283K | $306K | $170K | |
| Little River | $336K | $351K | $168K | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011103) | $251K | $271K | $157K | |
| Cedar Grove | $255K | $280K | $157K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
