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Orange, NC · ZIP 27516 · Census Tract 37135011207 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$614K
Downside (P10)
$471K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$665K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$862K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $373K | $392K | $423K | $462K | $596K | $614K | $631K | $637K | $665K | $617K |
| YoY Change | +4.9% | +8.0% | +9.3% | +28.8% | +3.1% | +2.6% | +1.0% | +4.4% | -7.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $526K | $505K | $471K | $543K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $737K | $789K | $862K | $701K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$526K to $737K
33.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$543K to $701K
25.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill | $611K | $665K | +8.8% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 011902) | $639K | $720K | +12.7% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 011208) | $592K | $661K | +11.7% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 012102) | $623K | $686K | +10.1% | |
| Chapel Hill area | $609K | $659K | +8.3% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 011800) | $613K | $654K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill | $611K | $665K | +8.8% | |
| Cedar Grove | $331K | $391K | +18.4% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 010701) | $528K | $617K | +16.8% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 011500) | $988K | $1.15M | +16.5% | |
| Hillsborough | $374K | $433K | +15.7% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 010706) | $585K | $672K | +14.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill | $611K | $665K | $392K | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011105) | $283K | $306K | $170K | |
| Little River | $336K | $351K | $168K | |
| Chapel Hill | $298K | $320K | $165K | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011103) | $251K | $271K | $157K | |
| Cedar Grove | $255K | $280K | $157K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.