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Orange, NC · ZIP 27510 · Census Tract 37135010705 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$547K
Downside (P10)
$465K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$595K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$735K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $261K | $255K | $283K | $306K | $335K | $365K | $407K | $401K | $512K | $516K | $547K | $558K | $561K | $595K |
| YoY Change | -2.4% | +11.1% | +8.0% | +9.7% | +8.9% | +11.5% | -1.6% | +27.9% | +0.6% | +6.0% | +2.1% | +0.4% | +6.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $465K | $463K | $465K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $636K | $687K | $735K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$465K to $636K
30.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$465K to $735K
45.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrboro · 27510 · (Tract 107.5) | $531K | $595K | +12.1% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 010701) | $528K | $617K | +16.8% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 010706) | $585K | $672K | +14.9% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 011400) | $525K | $595K | +13.3% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 012201) | $568K | $622K | +9.5% | |
| Hillsborough | $535K | $574K | +7.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrboro · 27510 · (Tract 107.5) | $531K | $595K | +12.1% | |
| Cedar Grove | $331K | $391K | +18.4% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 010701) | $528K | $617K | +16.8% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 011500) | $988K | $1.15M | +16.5% | |
| Hillsborough | $374K | $433K | +15.7% | |
| Chapel Hill (Tract 010706) | $585K | $672K | +14.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrboro · 27510 · (Tract 107.5) | $531K | $595K | $269K | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011105) | $283K | $306K | $170K | |
| Little River | $336K | $351K | $168K | |
| Chapel Hill | $298K | $320K | $165K | |
| Cheeks (Tract 011103) | $251K | $271K | $157K | |
| Cedar Grove | $255K | $280K | $157K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.