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McDowell, NC · ZIP 28762 · Census Tract 37111970800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$244K
Downside (P10)
$211K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$266K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$371K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $102K | $113K | $127K | $135K | $152K | $154K | $159K | $170K | $205K | $235K | $244K | $253K | $264K | $266K | $244K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$141,774 | -$130,174 | -$117,074 | -$108,374 | -$91,674 | -$90,074 | -$84,174 | -$73,274 | -$38,874 | -$8,974 | +$9,012 | +$20,104 | +$22,684 | -$36 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -58.2% | -53.4% | -48.1% | -44.5% | -37.6% | -37.0% | -34.6% | -30.1% | -16.0% | -3.7% | +3.7% | +8.3% | +9.3% | -0.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $217K | $219K | $211K | $219K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $317K | $331K | $371K | $273K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$217K to $317K
39.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$219K to $273K
22.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crooked Creek | $238K | $266K | +12.0% | |
| Old Fort | $177K | $203K | +14.5% | |
| Marion (Tract 970600) | $209K | $229K | +9.4% | |
| North Cove | $270K | $295K | +9.4% | |
| Marion (Tract 970300) | $211K | $229K | +8.6% | |
| Montford Cove | $178K | $193K | +8.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crooked Creek | $238K | $266K | +12.0% | |
| McDowell (Tract 080005) | $712K | $874K | +22.8% | |
| McDowell (Tract 921009) | $450K | $523K | +16.3% | |
| Old Fort | $177K | $203K | +14.5% | |
| Marion | $171K | $193K | +12.7% | |
| McDowell (Tract 800007) | $435K | $486K | +11.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crooked Creek | $238K | $266K | $160K | |
| Marion (Tract 970500) | $171K | $193K | $91K | |
| Nebo | $133K | $141K | $87K | |
| Brackett area | $138K | $152K | $86K | |
| Marion (Tract 970400) | $103K | $110K | $64K | |
| North Cove | $95K | $97K | $63K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
McDowell, NC · ZIP 28762 · Census Tract 37111970800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$244K
Downside (P10)
$211K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$266K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$371K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $102K | $113K | $127K | $135K | $152K | $154K | $159K | $170K | $205K | $235K | $244K | $253K | $264K | $266K | $244K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$141,774 | -$130,174 | -$117,074 | -$108,374 | -$91,674 | -$90,074 | -$84,174 | -$73,274 | -$38,874 | -$8,974 | +$9,012 | +$20,104 | +$22,684 | -$36 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -58.2% | -53.4% | -48.1% | -44.5% | -37.6% | -37.0% | -34.6% | -30.1% | -16.0% | -3.7% | +3.7% | +8.3% | +9.3% | -0.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $217K | $219K | $211K | $219K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $317K | $331K | $371K | $273K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$217K to $317K
39.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$219K to $273K
22.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crooked Creek | $238K | $266K | +12.0% | |
| Old Fort | $177K | $203K | +14.5% | |
| Marion (Tract 970600) | $209K | $229K | +9.4% | |
| North Cove | $270K | $295K | +9.4% | |
| Marion (Tract 970300) | $211K | $229K | +8.6% | |
| Montford Cove | $178K | $193K | +8.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crooked Creek | $238K | $266K | +12.0% | |
| McDowell (Tract 080005) | $712K | $874K | +22.8% | |
| McDowell (Tract 921009) | $450K | $523K | +16.3% | |
| Old Fort | $177K | $203K | +14.5% | |
| Marion | $171K | $193K | +12.7% | |
| McDowell (Tract 800007) | $435K | $486K | +11.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crooked Creek | $238K | $266K | $160K | |
| Marion (Tract 970500) | $171K | $193K | $91K | |
| Nebo | $133K | $141K | $87K | |
| Brackett area | $138K | $152K | $86K | |
| Marion (Tract 970400) | $103K | $110K | $64K | |
| North Cove | $95K | $97K | $63K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
