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McDowell, NC · Census Tract 37111921009 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$450K
Downside (P10)
$317K
-30% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$565K
+26% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$887K
+97% by 2030
Base case: +26% by 2030, with a forecast range from -30% to +97%. The model forecasts this with 45% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $450K | $492K | $501K | $523K | $565K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$41,712 | +$50,690 | +$73,515 | +$114,863 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +9.3% | +11.3% | +16.3% | +25.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $360K | $325K | $301K | $317K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $679K | $775K | $798K | $887K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$360K to $679K
65.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$317K to $887K
100.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 921009 | $450K | $565K | +25.5% | |
| McDowell (Tract 800007) | $435K | $517K | +18.9% | |
| McDowell (Tract 400009) | $533K | $611K | +14.7% | |
| McDowell (Tract 240007) | $485K | $555K | +14.4% | |
| North Cove | $279K | $280K | +0.2% | |
| Crooked Creek | $244K | $244K | -0.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 921009 | $450K | $565K | +25.5% | |
| McDowell (Tract 080005) | $712K | $906K | +27.4% | |
| McDowell (Tract 800007) | $435K | $517K | +18.9% | |
| McDowell (Tract 400009) | $533K | $611K | +14.7% | |
| McDowell (Tract 240007) | $485K | $555K | +14.4% | |
| Dysartsville | $178K | $191K | +7.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 921009 | $450K | $565K | $570K | |
| North Cove | $95K | $97K | $63K | |
| Crooked Creek | $244K | $244K | $54K | |
| Old Fort | $180K | $178K | $45K | |
| Marion | $175K | $173K | $43K | |
| Brackett area | $141K | $139K | $34K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
McDowell, NC · Census Tract 37111921009 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$450K
Downside (P10)
$317K
-30% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$565K
+26% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$887K
+97% by 2030
Base case: +26% by 2030, with a forecast range from -30% to +97%. The model forecasts this with 45% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $450K | $492K | $501K | $523K | $565K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$41,712 | +$50,690 | +$73,515 | +$114,863 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +9.3% | +11.3% | +16.3% | +25.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $360K | $325K | $301K | $317K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $679K | $775K | $798K | $887K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$360K to $679K
65.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$317K to $887K
100.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 921009 | $450K | $565K | +25.5% | |
| McDowell (Tract 800007) | $435K | $517K | +18.9% | |
| McDowell (Tract 400009) | $533K | $611K | +14.7% | |
| McDowell (Tract 240007) | $485K | $555K | +14.4% | |
| North Cove | $279K | $280K | +0.2% | |
| Crooked Creek | $244K | $244K | -0.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 921009 | $450K | $565K | +25.5% | |
| McDowell (Tract 080005) | $712K | $906K | +27.4% | |
| McDowell (Tract 800007) | $435K | $517K | +18.9% | |
| McDowell (Tract 400009) | $533K | $611K | +14.7% | |
| McDowell (Tract 240007) | $485K | $555K | +14.4% | |
| Dysartsville | $178K | $191K | +7.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 921009 | $450K | $565K | $570K | |
| North Cove | $95K | $97K | $63K | |
| Crooked Creek | $244K | $244K | $54K | |
| Old Fort | $180K | $178K | $45K | |
| Marion | $175K | $173K | $43K | |
| Brackett area | $141K | $139K | $34K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
