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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Lawrence, MO · ZIP 65712 · Census Tract 29109470202 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$190K
Downside (P10)
$145K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$200K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$281K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $112K | $102K | $137K | $166K | $181K | $190K | $186K | $200K | $200K |
| YoY Change | -9.2% | +34.1% | +21.5% | +9.3% | +4.9% | -2.2% | +7.8% | -0.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $150K | $147K | $145K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $238K | $254K | $281K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$150K to $238K
47.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$145K to $281K
68.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Vernon · 65712 · (Tract 4702.2) | $187K | $200K | +6.8% | |
| Turnback area | $206K | $226K | +9.6% | |
| Pierce (Tract 470402) | $165K | $178K | +7.5% | |
| Lincoln area | $177K | $186K | +4.9% | |
| Buck Prairie | $163K | $169K | +4.0% | |
| Pierce (Tract 470401) | $177K | $181K | +2.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Vernon · 65712 · (Tract 4702.2) | $187K | $200K | +6.8% | |
| Freistatt area | $219K | $247K | +12.8% | |
| Turnback area | $206K | $226K | +9.6% | |
| Pierce | $165K | $178K | +7.5% | |
| Aurora | $129K | $136K | +6.0% | |
| Mount Vernon | $245K | $259K | +5.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Vernon · 65712 · (Tract 4702.2) | $187K | $200K | $137K | |
| Lincoln area | $177K | $186K | $104K | |
| Pierce | $165K | $178K | $100K | |
| Aurora (Tract 470601) | $129K | $136K | $82K | |
| Buck Prairie | $163K | $169K | $78K | |
| Aurora (Tract 470602) | $125K | $128K | $77K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.