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Lawrence, MO · ZIP 65707 · Census Tract 29109470100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$177K
Downside (P10)
$149K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$186K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$253K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $108K | $106K | $108K | $114K | $113K | $120K | $122K | $153K | $157K | $173K | $177K | $179K | $185K | $186K | $178K |
| YoY Change | -2.6% | +2.4% | +5.8% | -1.1% | +6.1% | +1.5% | +26.0% | +2.2% | +10.1% | +2.5% | +1.2% | +3.4% | +0.4% | -4.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $149K | $154K | $149K | $155K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $206K | $241K | $253K | $203K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$149K to $206K
32.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$155K to $203K
26.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln area | $177K | $186K | +4.9% | |
| Turnback area | $206K | $226K | +9.6% | |
| Pierce (Tract 470402) | $165K | $178K | +7.5% | |
| Mount Vernon | $187K | $200K | +6.8% | |
| Buck Prairie | $163K | $169K | +4.0% | |
| Pierce (Tract 470401) | $177K | $181K | +2.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln area | $177K | $186K | +4.9% | |
| Freistatt area | $219K | $247K | +12.8% | |
| Turnback area | $206K | $226K | +9.6% | |
| Pierce | $165K | $178K | +7.5% | |
| Mount Vernon | $187K | $200K | +6.8% | |
| Aurora | $129K | $136K | +6.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln area | $177K | $186K | $104K | |
| Pierce (Tract 470401) | $177K | $181K | $116K | |
| Pierce (Tract 470402) | $165K | $178K | $100K | |
| Aurora (Tract 470601) | $129K | $136K | $82K | |
| Buck Prairie | $163K | $169K | $78K | |
| Aurora (Tract 470602) | $125K | $128K | $77K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.