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Dakota, MN · ZIP 55044 · Census Tract 27037060819 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$440K
Downside (P10)
$340K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$470K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$652K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $259K | $269K | $283K | $304K | $318K | $319K | $337K | $369K | $387K | $426K | $440K | $452K | $461K | $470K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$180,916 | -$170,616 | -$156,416 | -$135,516 | -$121,316 | -$120,616 | -$102,216 | -$70,316 | -$52,416 | -$13,916 | +$12,687 | +$21,419 | +$30,628 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.2% | -38.8% | -35.6% | -30.8% | -27.6% | -27.4% | -23.3% | -16.0% | -11.9% | -3.2% | +2.9% | +4.9% | +7.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $362K | $361K | $340K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $549K | $589K | $652K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$362K to $549K
41.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$340K to $652K
66.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeville | $437K | $470K | +7.6% | |
| Burnsville | $436K | $494K | +13.5% | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060806) | $437K | $495K | +13.3% | |
| Lakeville | $434K | $488K | +12.4% | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060823) | $441K | $480K | +8.8% | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060841) | $445K | $481K | +8.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeville | $437K | $470K | +7.6% | |
| Eureka area | $497K | $600K | +20.9% | |
| South St. Paul | $321K | $384K | +19.6% | |
| Burnsville | $375K | $447K | +19.4% | |
| West St. Paul | $260K | $306K | +17.8% | |
| Farmington | $384K | $451K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeville | $437K | $470K | $311K | |
| Eagan (Tract 060725) | $208K | $222K | $138K | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060829) | $281K | $277K | $137K | |
| West St. Paul | $293K | $306K | $136K | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060811) | $337K | $346K | $134K | |
| Eagan (Tract 060749) | $246K | $269K | $129K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Dakota, MN · ZIP 55044 · Census Tract 27037060819 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$440K
Downside (P10)
$340K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$470K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$652K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $259K | $269K | $283K | $304K | $318K | $319K | $337K | $369K | $387K | $426K | $440K | $452K | $461K | $470K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$180,916 | -$170,616 | -$156,416 | -$135,516 | -$121,316 | -$120,616 | -$102,216 | -$70,316 | -$52,416 | -$13,916 | +$12,687 | +$21,419 | +$30,628 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.2% | -38.8% | -35.6% | -30.8% | -27.6% | -27.4% | -23.3% | -16.0% | -11.9% | -3.2% | +2.9% | +4.9% | +7.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $362K | $361K | $340K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $549K | $589K | $652K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$362K to $549K
41.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$340K to $652K
66.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeville | $437K | $470K | +7.6% | |
| Burnsville | $436K | $494K | +13.5% | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060806) | $437K | $495K | +13.3% | |
| Lakeville | $434K | $488K | +12.4% | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060823) | $441K | $480K | +8.8% | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060841) | $445K | $481K | +8.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeville | $437K | $470K | +7.6% | |
| Eureka area | $497K | $600K | +20.9% | |
| South St. Paul | $321K | $384K | +19.6% | |
| Burnsville | $375K | $447K | +19.4% | |
| West St. Paul | $260K | $306K | +17.8% | |
| Farmington | $384K | $451K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeville | $437K | $470K | $311K | |
| Eagan (Tract 060725) | $208K | $222K | $138K | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060829) | $281K | $277K | $137K | |
| West St. Paul | $293K | $306K | $136K | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060811) | $337K | $346K | $134K | |
| Eagan (Tract 060749) | $246K | $269K | $129K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
