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Dakota, MN · ZIP 55124 · Census Tract 27037060822 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$445K
Downside (P10)
$372K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$503K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$653K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $275K | $314K | $312K | $317K | $318K | $331K | $340K | $402K | $414K | $422K | $445K | $468K | $484K | $503K |
| YoY Change | +14.3% | -0.6% | +1.5% | +0.2% | +4.1% | +3.0% | +18.1% | +2.9% | +2.0% | +5.5% | +5.1% | +3.5% | +3.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $376K | $372K | $372K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $540K | $572K | $653K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$376K to $540K
35.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$372K to $653K
55.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple Valley · Saint Paul · (Tract 608.22) | $432K | $503K | +16.4% | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060806) | $437K | $495K | +13.3% | |
| Rosemount | $452K | $506K | +11.9% | |
| Greenvale area | $451K | $498K | +10.5% | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060823) | $441K | $480K | +8.8% | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060841) | $445K | $481K | +8.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple Valley · Saint Paul · (Tract 608.22) | $432K | $503K | +16.4% | |
| Eureka area | $497K | $600K | +20.9% | |
| South St. Paul | $321K | $384K | +19.6% | |
| Burnsville | $375K | $447K | +19.4% | |
| West St. Paul | $260K | $306K | +17.8% | |
| Farmington | $384K | $451K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple Valley · Saint Paul · (Tract 608.22) | $432K | $503K | $281K | |
| Eagan (Tract 060725) | $208K | $222K | $138K | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060829) | $281K | $277K | $137K | |
| West St. Paul | $293K | $306K | $136K | |
| Apple Valley (Tract 060811) | $337K | $346K | $134K | |
| Eagan (Tract 060749) | $246K | $269K | $129K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.