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Anne Arundel, MD · ZIP 21401 · Census Tract 24003702402 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$618K
Downside (P10)
$525K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$681K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$951K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $469K | $489K | $512K | $548K | $561K | $587K | $572K | $620K | $640K | $625K | $618K | $647K | $651K | $681K |
| YoY Change | +4.1% | +4.8% | +7.0% | +2.4% | +4.5% | -2.6% | +8.5% | +3.2% | -2.3% | -1.3% | +4.8% | +0.6% | +4.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $555K | $538K | $525K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $769K | $798K | $951K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$555K to $769K
33.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$525K to $951K
62.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parole | $619K | $681K | +10.1% | |
| Crofton | $615K | $650K | +5.8% | |
| Severna Park | $613K | $641K | +4.6% | |
| Mayo (Tract 701201) | $619K | $643K | +3.9% | |
| 6 | $603K | $624K | +3.5% | |
| Mayo (Tract 701202) | $617K | $631K | +2.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parole | $619K | $681K | +10.1% | |
| Severna Park | $649K | $821K | +26.5% | |
| 4 | $383K | $464K | +21.3% | |
| Glen Burnie | $374K | $447K | +19.7% | |
| Fort Meade | $591K | $701K | +18.5% | |
| Maryland City | $417K | $492K | +18.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parole | $619K | $681K | $427K | |
| Ferndale | $255K | $274K | $148K | |
| Brooklyn Park (Tract 750204) | $317K | $340K | $145K | |
| Glen Burnie (Tract 730513) | $288K | $311K | $143K | |
| Glen Burnie (Tract 751102) | $251K | $255K | $122K | |
| Brooklyn Park (Tract 750102) | $198K | $213K | $115K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.