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Johnson, KS · ZIP 66212 · Census Tract 20091051808 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$389K
Downside (P10)
$351K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$420K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$592K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $267K | $287K | $318K | $385K | $380K | $389K | $401K | $412K | $420K | $393K |
| YoY Change | +7.4% | +10.9% | +20.9% | -1.3% | +2.4% | +3.2% | +2.6% | +2.1% | -6.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $346K | $355K | $351K | $349K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $487K | $523K | $592K | $443K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$346K to $487K
34.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$349K to $443K
24.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overland Park · 66212 · (Tract 518.8) | $383K | $420K | +9.7% | |
| Lenexa | $381K | $436K | +14.6% | |
| Overland Park (Tract 051910) | $381K | $427K | +11.9% | |
| Shawnee | $379K | $400K | +5.4% | |
| De Soto area | $395K | $408K | +3.3% | |
| Overland Park (Tract 053411) | $388K | $395K | +1.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overland Park · 66212 · (Tract 518.8) | $383K | $420K | +9.7% | |
| Overland Park (Tract 051803) | $295K | $359K | +21.5% | |
| Overland Park (Tract 053201) | $574K | $681K | +18.8% | |
| Lenexa | $470K | $557K | +18.3% | |
| Overland Park (Tract 053431) | $680K | $802K | +18.0% | |
| Olathe | $306K | $361K | +17.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overland Park · 66212 · (Tract 518.8) | $383K | $420K | $241K | |
| Gardner | $216K | $221K | $117K | |
| Olathe (Tract 052904) | $302K | $337K | $114K | |
| Olathe (Tract 052908) | $281K | $299K | $113K | |
| Shawnee | $169K | $183K | $96K | |
| Olathe (Tract 052905) | $160K | $174K | $85K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.