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Madison, ID · ZIP 83440 · Census Tract 16065950303 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$551K
Downside (P10)
$479K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$618K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$804K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $204K | $209K | $471K | $2.0M | $557K | $551K | $553K | $589K | $618K |
| YoY Change | +2.8% | +125.1% | +324.9% | -72.1% | -1.2% | +0.3% | +6.7% | +4.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $478K | $475K | $479K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $692K | $741K | $804K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$478K to $692K
38.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$479K to $804K
52.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rexburg · 83440 · (Tract 9503.3) | $554K | $618K | +11.6% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950401) | $420K | $463K | +10.1% | |
| Sugar City (Tract 950101) | $565K | $620K | +9.7% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950304) | $401K | $422K | +5.1% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950501) | $436K | $450K | +3.3% | |
| Sugar City (Tract 950103) | $535K | $551K | +2.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rexburg · 83440 · (Tract 9503.3) | $554K | $618K | +11.6% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950301) | $344K | $419K | +21.8% | |
| East Madison | $380K | $434K | +14.1% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950200) | $242K | $272K | +12.3% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950401) | $420K | $463K | +10.1% | |
| Sugar City | $565K | $620K | +9.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rexburg · 83440 · (Tract 9503.3) | $554K | $618K | $325K | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950304) | $401K | $422K | $220K | |
| East Madison | $380K | $434K | $188K | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950502) | $377K | $407K | $184K | |
| Sugar City | $394K | $415K | $171K | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950200) | $242K | $272K | $157K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.