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Madison, ID · ZIP 83436 · Census Tract 16065950402 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$384K
Downside (P10)
$353K
-8% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$434K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$541K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -8% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $231K | $246K | $307K | $328K | $370K | $384K | $393K | $421K | $434K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$152,986 | -$138,186 | -$76,886 | -$56,186 | -$13,386 | +$8,820 | +$37,065 | +$50,285 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.9% | -36.0% | -20.0% | -14.6% | -3.5% | +2.3% | +9.7% | +13.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $349K | $360K | $353K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $452K | $503K | $541K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$349K to $452K
26.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$353K to $541K
43.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Madison | $380K | $434K | +14.1% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950301) | $344K | $419K | +21.8% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950401) | $420K | $463K | +10.1% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950502) | $377K | $407K | +8.0% | |
| Sugar City | $394K | $415K | +5.2% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950304) | $401K | $422K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Madison | $380K | $434K | +14.1% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950301) | $344K | $419K | +21.8% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950200) | $242K | $272K | +12.3% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950303) | $554K | $618K | +11.6% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950401) | $420K | $463K | +10.1% | |
| Sugar City | $565K | $620K | +9.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Madison | $380K | $434K | $188K | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950301) | $344K | $419K | $259K | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950304) | $401K | $422K | $220K | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950502) | $377K | $407K | $184K | |
| Sugar City | $394K | $415K | $171K | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950200) | $242K | $272K | $157K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Madison, ID · ZIP 83436 · Census Tract 16065950402 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$384K
Downside (P10)
$353K
-8% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$434K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$541K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -8% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $231K | $246K | $307K | $328K | $370K | $384K | $393K | $421K | $434K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$152,986 | -$138,186 | -$76,886 | -$56,186 | -$13,386 | +$8,820 | +$37,065 | +$50,285 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.9% | -36.0% | -20.0% | -14.6% | -3.5% | +2.3% | +9.7% | +13.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $349K | $360K | $353K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $452K | $503K | $541K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$349K to $452K
26.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$353K to $541K
43.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Madison | $380K | $434K | +14.1% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950301) | $344K | $419K | +21.8% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950401) | $420K | $463K | +10.1% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950502) | $377K | $407K | +8.0% | |
| Sugar City | $394K | $415K | +5.2% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950304) | $401K | $422K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Madison | $380K | $434K | +14.1% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950301) | $344K | $419K | +21.8% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950200) | $242K | $272K | +12.3% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950303) | $554K | $618K | +11.6% | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950401) | $420K | $463K | +10.1% | |
| Sugar City | $565K | $620K | +9.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Madison | $380K | $434K | $188K | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950301) | $344K | $419K | $259K | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950304) | $401K | $422K | $220K | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950502) | $377K | $407K | $184K | |
| Sugar City | $394K | $415K | $171K | |
| Rexburg (Tract 950200) | $242K | $272K | $157K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
