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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Hawaii, HI · ZIP 96740 · Census Tract 15001021511 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$755K
Downside (P10)
$624K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$797K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.11M
+46% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $546K | $546K | $643K | $651K | $734K | $755K | $771K | $794K | $797K |
| YoY Change | +0.0% | +17.8% | +1.3% | +12.7% | +2.9% | +2.1% | +3.0% | +0.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $626K | $637K | $624K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $907K | $1.0M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$626K to $907K
36.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$624K to $1.11M
60.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahaluu-Keauhou | $746K | $797K | +6.9% | |
| South Kohala | $703K | $782K | +11.3% | |
| Papaikou-Wailea | $724K | $796K | +9.9% | |
| North Kona (Tract 021513) | $722K | $789K | +9.2% | |
| North Kona (Tract 021606) | $780K | $837K | +7.3% | |
| South Kona | $704K | $750K | +6.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahaluu-Keauhou | $746K | $797K | +6.9% | |
| South Kohala | $697K | $814K | +16.7% | |
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $458K | $518K | +13.1% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020802) | $510K | $575K | +12.7% | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $302K | $340K | +12.5% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020500) | $491K | $551K | +12.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahaluu-Keauhou | $746K | $797K | $481K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021101) | $329K | $332K | $193K | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $250K | $259K | $171K | |
| Kau | $308K | $336K | $165K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021108) | $288K | $303K | $156K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021107) | $250K | $276K | $144K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.