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Hawaii, HI · ZIP 96778 · Census Tract 15001021101 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$327K
Downside (P10)
$261K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$332K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$453K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $220K | $227K | $241K | $245K | $250K | $244K | $249K | $275K | $283K | $327K | $327K | $321K | $330K | $332K |
| YoY Change | +3.4% | +5.9% | +1.7% | +2.2% | -2.4% | +1.8% | +10.5% | +2.9% | +15.5% | +0.2% | -1.8% | +2.7% | +0.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $279K | $269K | $261K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $404K | $427K | $453K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$279K to $404K
38.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$261K to $453K
58.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pahoa-Kalapana | $329K | $332K | +0.9% | |
| Keaau-Mountain View (Tract 021016) | $340K | $360K | +6.0% | |
| Kau | $308K | $336K | +9.1% | |
| Keaau-Mountain View (Tract 021003) | $302K | $340K | +12.5% | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana | $288K | $303K | +5.3% | |
| Hilo | $377K | $413K | +9.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pahoa-Kalapana | $329K | $332K | +0.9% | |
| South Kohala | $697K | $814K | +16.7% | |
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $458K | $518K | +13.1% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020802) | $510K | $575K | +12.7% | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $302K | $340K | +12.5% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020500) | $491K | $551K | +12.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pahoa-Kalapana | $329K | $332K | $193K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021107) | $250K | $276K | $144K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021108) | $288K | $303K | $156K | |
| Kau | $308K | $336K | $165K | |
| Keaau-Mountain View (Tract 021017) | $250K | $259K | $171K | |
| Keaau-Mountain View (Tract 021003) | $302K | $340K | $197K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.