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Hawaii, HI · ZIP 96740 · Census Tract 15001021502 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.08M
Downside (P10)
$894K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.14M
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.51M
+39% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $617K | $679K | $654K | $699K | $741K | $748K | $756K | $885K | $940K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| YoY Change | +10.1% | -3.7% | +6.9% | +6.1% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +17.0% | +6.2% | +12.3% | +2.6% | +3.0% | +1.8% | +0.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $977K | $918K | $894K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.5M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$977K to $1.30M
29.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$894K to $1.51M
53.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Kona | $1.06M | $1.14M | +7.1% | |
| South Kohala (Tract 021708) | $916K | $992K | +8.3% | |
| North Kona (Tract 021510) | $956K | $1.02M | +6.7% | |
| South Kohala (Tract 021707) | $853K | $910K | +6.6% | |
| North Kona (Tract 021607) | $1.03M | $1.09M | +5.8% | |
| Kaiminani | $901K | $925K | +2.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Kona | $1.06M | $1.14M | +7.1% | |
| South Kohala | $697K | $814K | +16.7% | |
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $458K | $518K | +13.1% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020802) | $510K | $575K | +12.7% | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $302K | $340K | +12.5% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020500) | $491K | $551K | +12.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Kona | $1.06M | $1.14M | $614K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021101) | $329K | $332K | $193K | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $250K | $259K | $171K | |
| Kau | $308K | $336K | $165K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021108) | $288K | $303K | $156K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021107) | $250K | $276K | $144K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.