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Pasco, FL · ZIP 33544 · Census Tract 12101032106 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$553K
Downside (P10)
$453K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$620K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$784K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $319K | $336K | $326K | $341K | $343K | $361K | $368K | $535K | $512K | $542K | $553K | $562K | $608K | $620K |
| YoY Change | +5.5% | -3.0% | +4.4% | +0.8% | +5.1% | +1.9% | +45.5% | -4.3% | +5.8% | +1.9% | +1.6% | +8.2% | +2.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $462K | $453K | $453K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $645K | $734K | $784K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$462K to $645K
32.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$453K to $784K
53.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Chapel · 33544 · (Tract 321.6) | $541K | $620K | +14.6% | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031602) | $537K | $615K | +14.6% | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031504) | $478K | $539K | +12.6% | |
| Central Pasco | $492K | $552K | +12.1% | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031508) | $535K | $564K | +5.4% | |
| New Port Richey (Tract 031701) | $584K | $599K | +2.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Chapel · 33544 · (Tract 321.6) | $541K | $620K | +14.6% | |
| Central Pasco | $442K | $545K | +23.2% | |
| Lacoochee | $265K | $312K | +17.9% | |
| Land O' Lakes | $389K | $455K | +17.1% | |
| New Port Richey | $448K | $521K | +16.4% | |
| Dade City | $230K | $266K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Chapel · 33544 · (Tract 321.6) | $541K | $620K | $331K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033014) | $73K | $80K | $45K | |
| Dade City | $73K | $79K | $42K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033101) | $76K | $80K | $41K | |
| Bayonet Point | $119K | $123K | $39K | |
| Port Richey | $65K | $73K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.