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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Pasco, FL · ZIP 34668 · Census Tract 12101031009 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$121K
Downside (P10)
$108K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$123K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$147K
+21% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +21%. The model forecasts this with 83% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $53K | $53K | $52K | $55K | $58K | $74K | $82K | $98K | $118K | $119K | $121K | $121K | $126K | $123K |
| YoY Change | -0.4% | -1.7% | +5.2% | +5.3% | +27.1% | +10.9% | +20.3% | +20.4% | +0.3% | +1.9% | +0.3% | +3.8% | -2.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $107K | $112K | $108K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $136K | $147K | $147K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$107K to $136K
23.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$108K to $147K
31.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayonet Point | $119K | $123K | +3.3% | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033010) | $138K | $159K | +15.6% | |
| Zephyrhills South | $106K | $118K | +11.7% | |
| Port Richey | $107K | $116K | +8.1% | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033013) | $117K | $125K | +6.6% | |
| Zephyrhills West | $113K | $118K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayonet Point | $119K | $123K | +3.3% | |
| Central Pasco | $442K | $545K | +23.2% | |
| Lacoochee | $265K | $312K | +17.9% | |
| Land O' Lakes | $389K | $455K | +17.1% | |
| New Port Richey | $448K | $521K | +16.4% | |
| Dade City | $230K | $266K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayonet Point | $119K | $123K | $39K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033011) | $84K | $90K | $47K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033014) | $73K | $80K | $45K | |
| Dade City | $73K | $79K | $42K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033101) | $76K | $80K | $41K | |
| Port Richey | $65K | $73K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.